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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Powell warned goodbye to expect the Federal Reserve to take action to rescue the market, risk aversion sentiment is high, and gold prices continue to set new historical highs." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (April 17, Beijing time), spot gold trading around 3349, setting a new historical high to 3357.66 earlier; gold prices broke through US$3300 per ounce on Wednesday, up more than 3.5%, and the intraday gains were sharp and continued to rise, as the weakening of the US dollar and the escalating trade tensions prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. U.S. crude oil traded around $62.27 per barrel, Bergail rose on Wednesday to a two-week high, and markets were concerned about global supply after Washington imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil importers.
Federal Director Barr delivered a speech, and IMF President Georgieva delivered a speech on the global economy.
U.S. stocks closed sharply on Wednesday as Nvidia warned that new U.S. restrictions on its export chips would bring huge expenses, and Fed Chairman Powell said U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing.
Powell said in a speech at the Chicago Economic Club that higher than expected tariffs could mean higher inflation and slower growth. But he said the Fed will wait for more data on the direction of the economy before making any adjustments to interest rates.
The Fed's afternoon remarks triggered a further sell-off in the stock market, after the plunge in stock prices of Nvidia and other chipmakers had already put pressure on the stock market. "Powell confirmed the issue that investors have been worried about is the possibility that tariffs lead to slowing economic growth and more stubborn inflation," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.>Nvidia said late Tuesday that it will bear $5.5 billion in fees after the U.S. government restricts export of its H20 artificial intelligence chips. "The market and investors want certainty, and I can be sure that this year will be more difficult for investors than the relaxed investment environment in the past two years," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.73% to 39,669.39 points, the S&P 500 fell 2.24% to 5,275.70 points, and the Nasdaq fell 3.07% to 16,307.16 points. The Nasdaq Index fell to 16066.46 points during the session.
At the same time, the Wall Street panic indicator, the Cboe Volatility Index, rose to close at 32.64.
Nvidia's stock price fell 6.9%, while the semiconductor index fell 4.1%. New U.S. restrictions also affected AMD, with its share price slumping 7.3%.
Also on Wednesday, Dutch chip manufacturing equipment giant ASML warned that tariffs have led to increased uncertainty over its outlook.
Bill Northey, senior investment director at Bank of America Wealth Management in Bill Northey, Montana, said: "The market is still digesting the changing details of tariff implementation, so uncertainty among investors, businesses and consumers remains very high. Companies are beginning to mention the impact of tariffs and the general negative impact of this uncertainty."
Gold prices continued record-breaking gains on Wednesday, breaking $3,300 per ounce as weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose by more than 3.5%. U.S. gold futures rose 3.3%. "The general weakness of the dollar, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and concerns about a global recession still hold strong support for gold," said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. "After rising above $3,300, the trend of gold prices depends entirely on psychological levels. The bulls' target price may be $3,400, $3,500 or even higher. However, if a wave of profit-taking or positive news on Sino-US trade may trigger a sell-off.
At the same time, the dollar weakened against other currencies, maintaining near the three-year low hit last week, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Gold prices have risen nearly $700 this year, supported by tariff disputes, expectations of interest rate cuts and strong central bank purchases.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that this wave of upward trend is a bit out of fundamentals and has a risk of a pullback. However, the pullback we have seen in the past year or so is not large, because every decline will be supported by buying. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing, consumer spending growth is moderate, and large to avoid tariffsVolume imports may put pressure on GDP estimates, and market confidence is deteriorating.
Spot silver rose 1.7% to $32.85 per ounce, platinum rose 0.8% to $967.45 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.1% to $970.42 per ounce. Oil market
Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Wednesday to a two-week high, with markets worried about global supply after Washington imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil importers.
The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose 1.8% to $65.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures closed up 1.9% to $62.47 a barrel. Both indicator contracts closed at their highest levels since April 3, according to data from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG).
The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil exports on Wednesday, and this month the U.S. government has restarted negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said the organization has received latest plans for further cuts in oil production to make up for overproduction, further boosting crude oil futures prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil inventories rose by 515,000 barrels to 442.9 million barrels in the week ended April 11, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 507,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that global oil demand growth will hit its lowest level since 2020, with global oil demand shrinking due to the new crown epidemic.
Federal Chairman Powell said: "The tariff increase announced so far exceeds expectations. The same may be true for its economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing economic growth." After Powell's speech, crude oil futures gave up some of the gains.
Alex Hodes, director of market strategy at financial services firm StoneX, said in a report: "The world economy depends largely on whether the two major economies can reach an agreement, rather than a protracted trade war."
The uncertainty of trade tensions has led several banks including UBS, BNP Paribas and HSBC to lower crude oil price forecasts.
The US dollar resumed its decline on Wednesday, with safe-haven and risk-sensitive currencies both performing better than the US dollar, and traders are waiting for the US President Trump administration to reach a new trade agreement with trading partners. The dollar fell sharply last week on concerns about the impact of new tariffs on the economy and investors adjusting their overseas asset allocation due to uncertainty in the implementation of trade policies.
The United States is in consultation with countries including Japan, and tensions between the two major economies are growing.
Brad Bechtel, global foreign exchange director at Furui in New York, said: "We are a little bit of an information vacuum right now, and we are waiting for what to do with other countries."protocol. "Bechtel said: Some major countries may announce deals, which will provide at least one framework for the U.S. government's tariff policy.
Trump said he will attend the meeting of Japan-US trade officials on Wednesday. South Korea's deputy prime minister and planning and finance minister Choi Sang-mu will hold talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent next week to discuss trade issues. U.S. Vice President Vance said Tuesday that the United States and the United Kingdom are likely to reach a "great agreement" on trade. Trump ordered an investigation on Tuesday about the possibility of new tariffs on all key U.S. mineral imports.
Federal Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth appears to be slowing, consumer spending growth is moderate, and rushing to avoid tariffs could drag down. The GDP estimates, confidence is also getting worse. Powell also said the hope that the Fed will take action to curb market volatility is likely wrong. U.S. data on Wednesday showed a surge in U.S. retail sales in March as households increased their purchases of motor vehicles ahead of tariffs.
The euro rose 0.84% to $1.1376, down from a three-year high of $1.1473 hit last Friday. The dollar depreciated 0.71% against the yen to 142.22, after hitting 142.03, slightly below its Friday low, and its lowest exchange rate since September 30.
Bechtel noted that trading volumes were falling ahead of the Good Friday holiday, when most U.S. markets The market will be closed, but the foreign exchange market will remain open.
The dollar fell 1% against the Swiss franc to 0.815, slightly higher than the 10-year low on Friday. The Swiss franc has appreciated the most in the G10 currency since the tariffs were announced on April 2, as the deflationary effect of the tariffs could prompt the Swiss central bank to revise interest rates back to negative values.
The pound fell 0.07% to $1.3221 after hitting a six-month high of $1.3292.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% to $1.39 after the Bank of Canada kept its key policy rates unchanged at 2.75%, the first time the Bank of Canada has suspended interest rates after seven consecutive cuts and said it would be prepared to take decisive action if necessary to control Inflation.
The Australian dollar rose 0.35% to $0.6365, reaching $0.6391 earlier, the highest since February 24.
Federal Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that the tariffs introduced by U.S. President Trump even exceeded the Fed's highest estimate in advance. Powell said in a question at an event at the Chicago Economic Club: Tariff scale exceeded forecasters' expectations, and of course exceeded our expectations, and even exceeded our highest estimate.
On April 16 local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell issued a strong warning on the inflationary effect of US President Trump's trade policy. Powell said Trump's tariff policy "very likely" to stimulate inflation to rise temporarily, warning that the impact could last for a long time. Powell also said many government policies in trade, immigration, fiscal affairs and regulation are still evolving, but rising inflation and slowing economic growth may be coming.
On April 16, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in his regular video speech in the evening that day that Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Affairs Sveridonko reported on the relevant situation of the negotiations on the mineral agreement. The Ukrainian government team and the United States have achieved good results on cooperation on the economic partnership agreement, and the relevant legal matters have been basically finalized. Earlier that day, Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and economic minister Sveridenko informed on his official social platform that the technical teams in Ukraine and the United States have conducted in-depth research on the mineral agreement and have made significant progress. She said that the two sides have taken a positive step in establishing the Ukrainian reconstruction investment fund and other aspects. She also said that the teams of both sides will also carry out work on specific points in the agreement. Sveridenko said the agreement needs to be approved by Ukraine's Supreme Lada (Parliament).
Feder Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that the market's expectation that the Fed will take action to calm the volatility may be wrong. When asked whether the Fed would intervene in response to the sharp decline in the stock market, Fed Chairman Powell said: "My answer is no, but I will give an explanation." Powell said at the meeting in Chicago: "I think the market is digesting the current situation, the market is coping with a lot of uncertainty, and that means volatility." Powell said that given the huge changes in the tariff system of US President Trump, it is understandable that the market will encounter difficulties. He also explained that it was difficult to know in real time what caused the trouble. "I have had a lot of experience with major market volatility, such as the bond market. Usually people form an idea and look back two months later and find that the original view was completely wrong. Therefore, it is too early to determine what happened in the market now." At present, he pointed out that the market turmoil stems in part from hedge funds cutting leverage or debt, adding: "In the short term, you may continue to see market volatility." Trump "bold" tariff revenues of $2 billion per day Customs data shows only $250 million
According to reports, data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CPB) appears to contradict President Trump's remarks regarding the revenue brought by a series of recent tariffs. CPB said, “Since April 5, the CBP has collected more than $500 million under reciprocal tariffs, with total tariff revenues levied under 15 presidential trade actions since January 20, more than 210$100 million. "The U.S. financial system had a 10-hour failure, which caused U.S. importers to enter a code that would have exempted higher tariffs on goods transported at sea. "Even during a brief period of failure, the average tariff revenue of $250 million per day has not been interrupted. "However, Trump repeatedly stated that the United States earns $2 billion in revenue from tariffs every day.
The Bank of Canada (the central bank) announced on the 16th that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate at the current level of 2.75%. Bank of Canada said that a major change in the direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, dragged down the outlook for economic growth and pushed up inflation expectations. Tariffs and uncertainties hit consumer and corporate confidence impacts, Canada's economic growth is slowing, and consumption, residential investment and commercial spending all weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions also disrupted the recovery of the labor market, resulting in a decline in employment in March, slowing corporate recruitment and weak wage growth. Bank of Canada President Tive McClum said the future path of U.S. trade policy remains highly unpredictable, and there is considerable uncertainty about the impact of the trade war on the economy. /p>
Gross domestic product increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, ranking among the top among major economies in the world. Five dimensions will help you understand the "report card" of economic operation in the first quarter: ①Total. The first GDP data in 2025 was released, laying the foundation for achieving the annual growth target of about 5%; ②Consumption. Retail of social consumer goods in the first quarter Total amount increased by 4.6% year-on-year; ③ Investment. Investment in equipment and equipment purchases increased by 19% year-on-year in the first quarter; ④ Industrial production accelerated. The added value of industrial above-scale in the country increased by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter; ⑤ Foreign trade situation. my country's import and export scale hit a record high in the same period, and it also exceeded 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters.
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