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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The sentiment in the US bond market is stable, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 16th". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major futures indexes all fell, Dow futures fell 0.83%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.47%, and Nasdaq futures fell 2.26%. European stocks opened lower collectively, with the European Stoke 50 index falling 1.2% on the opening, the German DAX index falling 0.6%, the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.4%, and the French CAC40 index falling 0.8%.
1. The US Treasury market remained stable on Wednesday, with yields flat across the board, showing the market's risk aversion sentiment. Although tech stocks fell about 1.5% due to trade tensions, the Treasury bond market has become a "safe haven" for investors.
2. The Trump trade team is taking a series of measures to try to reach a series of trade agreement templates by intensive negotiations with multiple countries at the same time. This strategy aims to adjust the global trade landscape through multilateral negotiations.
3. The market shows obvious concerns about the uncertainty of trade policy. Although some market participants are optimistic about reaching an agreement, there are also opinions that volatility in trade policy may have a negative impact on market confidence and economic growth expectations.
4. The short-term trading tendency of the US bond market is to maintain recent range volatility, and the 10-year US bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.30% and 4.38%. This range volatility reflects the market's cautious attitude in uncertainty.
5. Economic data intensive on Wednesday,Including retail sales in March (expected to increase by 1.3%), industrial production (expected to decrease by 0.2%), commercial inventory in February (expected to increase by 0.2%) and the NAHB housing market index in April (expected to decrease to 37). These data will provide further clues to the market regarding the economic outlook.
6. The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $60 billion in 17-week short-term Treasury bonds and $13 billion in reissued 20-year Treasury bonds. The market demand for Treasury bonds will reflect investors' confidence in the economic outlook.
7. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials will deliver speeches, and the market will closely monitor its statements on economic prospects and monetary policy.
1. London news, the yield on German 2-year treasury bonds has been greatly affected by the stock market recently, and it seems that the valuation is relatively high. According to a one-month regression analysis, the correlation coefficient between the 2-year German Treasury bond yield and the European Stock 600 index was 0.952, showing a strong correlation.
2. From the perspective of longer-term regression analysis, the correlation will decrease. Based on the current data, the yield on the German 2-year government bond is 12.5 basis points lower than the model's predicted value, which is equivalent to less than 2.3 standard deviations.
1. According to five sources, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will lose dozens of employees after the Trump administration makes the latest round of resignation recommendations. This loss of staff could affect the release of the world's most watched energy report.
2. The data released by EIA includes oil and gas production, crude oil and fuel inventory, and price forecasts, etc. These data are used by traders and energy companies as indicators to predict future supply and demand, and have an important impact on prices.
3.A source said that since the beginning of this year, one-third of the EIA's approximately 300-350 employees have left or accepted a buyout. Other sources have also confirmed that the number of resignations is as many as dozens.
4. A source said: "It's hard to say whether these data can continue to be released. I can't imagine how they will maintain the release of weekly energy data over time."
1. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate, the most popular U.S. housing loan rate, jumped to 6.81% last week, the highest level in two months. This change happened against the backdrop of intensified financial market turmoil, and President Trump's continued promotion of trade disputes was one of the main reasons.
2. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 20 basis points in the week ended April 11, the largest single-week increase since October 2023. At the same time, the number of mortgage applications has also declined.
3. Mortgage Loan ProfitThe rate is closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield, which showed its biggest weekly gain since 2001 last week. The rise in yields reflects a decline in investors' demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which is related to Trump's actions to suspend some of the new tariffs while imposing tariffs on China.
4.MBA said that more and more home buyers choose adjustable interest rate mortgages because the initial interest rate for such loans is lower than the traditional 30-year fixed interest rate. Last week, adjustable interest rate mortgages accounted for about 9.6% of all mortgage applications, the highest level since November 2023.
1. Italy attracted nearly 11 billion euros (about 12.5 billion US dollars) in its treasury bond issuance on April 16, almost 10 times the amount it plans to raise. Strong demand for the issuance is due to an upward adjustment of the S&P Global's sovereign debt rating on Friday.
2. The Italian Ministry of Finance plans to raise 8 billion euros by issuing a new 7-year BTP and 3 billion euros through a new 30-year inflation-linked BTP. According to the lead manager, the final demand exceeds €50 billion and €53 billion respectively.
3. S&P Global raised its sovereign debt rating from BBB to BBB+, an unexpected move after Rome halved its economic growth expectations and expected public debt to increase this year and next year. S&P pointed out that Italy's decline in budget deficit, maintaining resilience in exports and high domestic savings rates are the reasons for its upgrade, while the European Central Bank will control inflation pressures.
4. S&P said the new rating outlook is stable.
1. The Russian Central Bank survey of analysts shows that the average key interest rate in 2025 is expected to be 20%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 20.1%.
2. Currently, the key interest rate of the Russian Central Bank is 21%. A Reuters survey conducted in late March showed that analysts expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on April 25.
1. EU Judicial Commissioner Michael McGrath said at a press conference that although EU officials are still working to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. government, the EU also needs to prepare for possible situations where an agreement cannot be reached.
2. EU Trade Commissioner Maroche Sevchovich met with U.S. reciprocal officials this week to try to advance negotiations, showing that both sides are still actively seeking solutions. However, McGrath stressed that the EU must be prepared simultaneously for possible breakdowns in negotiations, although the EU hopes that this will not happen.
1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be held at 23:30 Beijing timeSpeaking at the Chicago Economic Club, he elaborated on his views on the inflation and employment situation in the United States. Investors are looking forward to getting clues about the Fed's policy tendencies.
2. The uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff remarks has made the market pay special attention to inflation expectations. Powell pointed out in his last speech that tariffs may bring the dual challenges of rising inflation and slowing economic growth, but he was on the wait-and-see attitude at the time, saying it was too early to judge the monetary policy path.
3. Powell's speech will face more complexity in more tariff news. Although Trump suspended some tariffs, the U.S. government is still considering imposing new tariffs on drugs and semiconductors. The market is concerned about whether Powell will adjust his policy stance due to tariff uncertainty.
4. Federal Reserve Director Waller previously stated that if tariffs are lowered, the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged and gradually cut interest rates; if tariffs remain high, the unemployment rate may rise, and the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates more actively. Other policy makers are more concerned about rising inflation expectations and may support maintaining high interest rates or even hikes.
5. Recent data show that inflation has slowed down and the labor market remains strong. Powell's speech will provide markets with key information on how the Fed balances inflation and employment.
Bank U.S. global fund manager survey in April showed that the allocation of bonds hit a record increase. In a press release released with the investigation, Bank of America said that compared with history, investors over-allocate bonds, as well as utilities, essentials and UK stocks. The pursuit of bonds is caused by U.S. capital outflows and global fiscal panic. While bond allocations have seen record growth, global stock allocations have fallen to their lowest levels since July 2023.
OPEC said on Wednesday that it had received the latest oil production compensation plans from eight countries, whose oil production exceeded voluntary production quotas within OPEC+. These countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
According to Kyodo News, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 16th that it will implement the third batch of bids aimed at additional release of government reserve rice from the 23rd to the 25th. The target of this project is to produce 100,000 tons of meters in 2023, and the winning large-scale acquisition units will receive supply. Whether this move can curb the continued high rice prices has become the focus. The Agriculture and Water Province has implemented two bids in March. A total of 212,000 tons of reserve rice are being put into place one after another, and have been put on the shelves in some stores since late March. According to the plan, monthly releases will be insisted on around July before the launch of the new rice, and the release volume after May will be determined based on factors such as circulation conditions.
Euro/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1355, an increase of 0.64%. Before New York, the euro against the dollar fell on the last trading day, taking a brief break to collect its recent gains in an attempt to gain some positive momentum that contributed to its rise, and (RSI) there are positive signs.
GBP/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3265, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of GBPUSD rose in recent intraday trading after it successfully gained positive momentum through some overbought conditions on the Unload (RSI), and now we have witnessed the start of a positive overlap signal, supported by a strong short-term bull market in stable trading above the 1.3200 level.
Spot gold: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3307.39, an increase of 2.41%. Before New York, gold prices expanded their gains in recent intraday trading, and successfully surpassed the main resistance of $3,300 in the last trading due to the short-term flag pattern, supported by the dominance of the main bullish trend and the short-term secondary trend line, showing the strength of this trend.
Spot silver: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.946, an increase of 2.05%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices rose at the intraday level, reaching our price target of $32.90, supported by a short-term bullish correction trend and trading along a steep trend line with positive signals on the RSI.
Crude oil market: As of 20:16 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 61.220, an increase of 0.82%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices rose on the last trading day. As (RSI) began to show positive signals, a positive divergence was formed after reaching an exaggerated oversold area compared to the price trend, which made the price exceed the resistance of the EMA50 and attacked the neckline of the previously formed inverted head and shoulders bottom pattern.
CITIC Macroeconomician Jack Allen Reynolds wrote in a report that Washington's tradeEasy tariffs will ensure that the euro zone inflation continues to ease. Some potential price pressures remain, especially in the service industry. But he said that this will ease as businesses lower costs and wage growth slows. U.S. tariff escalation will strengthen the trend of slowing price increases. In addition to lowering energy prices, total demand will also weaken.
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