As Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns about escalating trade conflicts were eased, and spot gold fell 1.54% to $2,882.09 per ounce. As of now, gold is quoted at 2,887.04.
The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in January was -0.9%, the largest drop since January 2024.
There is a hot silver investment in South Korea, and silver bars are sold out.
News related to Russia and Ukraine:
US President Trump: My meeting with Putin may take place soon; Someone tried to separate Musk and me but failed.
US Vice President said he would not rule out "military means" to promote peace talks with Russia. Vance said his remarks were distorted.
Russian media: Russian and US officials will hold a meeting on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on the 18th. The report said that US representatives are expected to include US Secretary of State Rubio, US President's National Security Advisor Waltz and US Middle East Special Envoy Witkov. There are also reports that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is preparing to visit Saudi Arabia.
US media: The Trump administration proposed that Ukraine repay aid with 50% of rare earth minerals; Ukraine rejected the US mineral request, and Ukraine has not responded yet.
The EU will agree this week to explore blocking the import of food produced to different standards, with early targets including some US soybeans.
The Trump administration "loosened its grip", and a large number of US-made heavy bombs arrived in Israel late at night.
Spot gold fell below $2,900 at the close of last Friday, but still recorded a gain of more than 0.8% for the week. Traders' profit-taking before the weekend was the main reason for the decline in gold prices, but the US dollar index hit a new high this year and the plunge in US Treasury yields provided support.
The US retail sales data for January released last Friday fell more than expected, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year have increased. Although the monthly rate of industrial output is higher than market expectations, it failed to reverse the decline of the US dollar.
From a technical perspective, the 14-day RSI fell after hitting the extremely overbought zone last Friday. It has now fallen out of the overbought zone and fallen back to the bullish range. The recent correction may be supported near the low of $2,864 on February 12. If it continues to break down, the psychological barrier of $2,850 will serve as the first line of defense for the downward movement of gold prices. If it fails, it will fall to the support level of $2,790, the conversion level of the cycle high on October 31, and the fluctuation low of $2,730 on January 27. In the upward direction, if the gold price returns to above $2,900, the historical high of $2,942 will become the primary resistance. After breaking through, it is expected to challenge $2,950 and aim at the psychological barrier of $3,000.
In general, the upward trend of gold has not changed, but the short-term correction pressure is evident. Traders need to pay close attention to the effectiveness of the $2,864 support, as gains and losses at this price will determine the depth of this correction.
After Powell's semi-annual testimony and January inflation data, investors are unlikely to pay much attention to the Fed's January meeting minutes next week. So the focus may be on the February S&P Global PMI data next Friday. Any PMI below 50 may put pressure on the dollar and push up gold.
In addition, investors will continue to pay close attention to geopolitical developments. It is not easy to predict what trade policy US President Trump will announce next. Since Trump took office, the dollar has strengthened against other currencies every time he has taken aggressive tariff measures, but once the market realizes that the dollar has more room to maneuver before finalizing trade terms than initially expected, the dollar will erase its previous gains. Therefore, trading based on the immediate reaction to Trump's tariff negotiations may be risky.
Gold remains technically overbought in the short term, with the daily RSI remaining near 80. In addition, spot gold is just one step away from the upper edge of the upward channel since mid-December at $2,950. If gold undergoes a technical adjustment, the midpoint of the upward channel at $2,900 may be seen as the first support level, followed by the lower edge of the upward channel at $2,850 and the 20-day SMA at $2,820.
On the upside, the first resistance level may be at $2,950, followed by the psychological level of $3,000. If the latter proves difficult to break through, bulls may take profits and drag gold down in the short term. But a decisive breakthrough of the $3,000 resistance will trigger a new wave of bullish entry.
Senior market strategist James Stanley believes that I continue to be bullish on gold this week. At present, bulls are still firmly in control of the market situation, and it is far from the time to form a top. However, spot gold may need to experience a major correction before testing the $3,000 mark.
Rich Checkan, international president of Asset Strategies, said that the US CPI and PPI data released last week showed that inflation was stubborn, and gold will be sought after by the market as a hedging tool, so I think spot gold will continue to rise this week and gradually stabilize. It may trigger a psychological correction when it approaches $3,000, but it has not yet arrived.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, pointed out that I think gold will continue to rise. The current market is artificially manipulated by tariff statements and geopolitical turmoil, and long-term investors have no choice. The resistance of the historical high is not to be feared, but there are still some risks. If the "Poseidon dilemma" occurs, it may cause the gold price to pull back (referring to the market reversal caused by collective bullishness).
Gold showed signs of fatigue after setting a record last week. It closed at $2,882.78 on Friday. Although it also set a record high closing price, it failed to stabilize above the $2,900 mark.
Phillip Streible, chief strategist at Blue Line Futures, pointed out that Trump and Putin had a call on the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine last week, and Trump's tariff policy was "loud thunder, little rain". Although it did announce a comprehensive 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, the postponement of other tariff actions until the completion of the country review in April eased market concerns about an immediate trade war. The above situation weakened the market's safe-haven demand, and in my opinion, the silver sell-off dragged down the entire precious metals sector, although the final decline in gold was relatively mild.
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital, said that the US CPI for January released last week rebounded beyond expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a hearing that he was closely watching signs of slowing consumption and emphasized that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Gold remains resilient in such hawkish remarks, which may suggest that the market is beginning to price in the risk of stagflation in the United States-a nightmare scenario where stubborn inflation and slowing economic growth coexist.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, believes that although gold fell last Friday, the magnitude of each correction did not exceed 3%, indicating that the bottoming force of physical buying is strong. And the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings, with the reserve ratio rising to a record high of 5.2%. Technical patterns show that the step-by-step upward pattern of gold has not been destroyed, indicating that it still has the potential to continue to rise.