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XM Forex Crude Oil Analysis: US crude oil rose slightly, Gaza ceasefire and retail data double variation

Post time: 2025-01-17 views

Basic news ... The focus of this trading day is on the weekly close, and whether the US dollar index remains strong, putting pressure on commodities.

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US says Gaza ceasefire should start as planned on Sunday, although there are still issues to be resolved

US Secretary of State Blinken said on Thursday that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip should start as planned on Sunday, although negotiators need to resolve "outstanding issues" at the last minute.

Israel postponed a cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire with Hamas due to long-standing and obvious differences among ministers. Media reports said the vote could take place on Friday or even Saturday, but the agreement is expected to be approved.

Israeli warplanes launched the most intense attack on Gaza in months, but Israel still accused Hamas of delaying the ceasefire. Palestinian authorities said at least 86 people were killed in one day since the ceasefire was announced.

Senior Hamas official Izzatel-Reshiq said Hamas remains committed to the ceasefire, which is set to take effect on Sunday to stop 15 months of bloodshed.

"It's not surprising at all that in a negotiation process that's so challenging and so tense that there might be issues to deal with," Blinken told a news conference in Washington. "We're cleaning up the mess as we speak."

An anonymous U.S. official said the two sides were making good progress in removing last-minute obstacles. "I think it's going to be fine," he said. The official said earlier that the only remaining dispute is the status of some prisoners Hamas wants to release.

Envoys from President Biden and President-elect Trump are in Doha, working with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to resolve the issue, the official said. The ceasefire was reached on Wednesday with the mediation of Qatar, Egypt and the United States.

The agreement lays out the outlines of an initial six-week ceasefire, with Israeli troops to gradually withdraw. Dozens of hostages held by Hamas will be freed in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

Peace could also bring broader benefits to the entire Middle East, including an end to disruptions to global trade by Yemen's Houthi movement, which has attacked ships in the Red Sea. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said his group would monitor the ceasefire and resume attacks if it is violated.

Israel will not formally accept the deal until the security cabinet and government approve it. The vote was expected to take place Thursday, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu postponed the meeting, accusing Hamas of making last-minute demands.

Netanyahu's office said: "The Israeli cabinet will not meet until the mediators inform Israel that Hamas has accepted all aspects of the agreement." "Israeli media reported that the cabinet is expected to vote on Friday or Saturday, but the prime minister's office would not comment on the timing.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in December, lower than the expected 0.8% increase in November.

Despite the poor growth, it still shows that the demand for the U.S. economy has a certain strength. Auto sales performed well, but building materials and catering services lagged behind. Given the data showing that the economy is resilient, the Federal Reserve is more cautious about cutting interest rates this year.

This affected the market's expectations for the economic outlook and was transmitted to the crude oil market. The market was originally worried that the economic slowdown would suppress crude oil demand, but the retail data suggested that the economy was not so pessimistic, which alleviated this concern to a certain extent.

U.S. crude oil prices had previously fluctuated sharply due to the uncertain economic outlook. Affected by this data, although it will not fluctuate sharply in the short term, in the long run, if retail data continues to improve and the economy develops steadily, crude oil demand is expected to increase, providing support for oil prices.

 
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