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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: Gold prices are expected to return to around 3300, Moody's lowered the U.S. credit rating and U.S. tariffs may return to "peer" levels." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (May 19, Beijing time), spot gold rose by more than 1%, trading around 3242.88, and Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1 over the weekend, increasing market concerns. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Bescent said on Sunday that if countries do not reach a trade agreement with the United States, tariffs will return to "reciprocal" levels; U.S. crude oil traded near $62 per barrel. Although the Iranian Foreign Minister said that Iran's uranium enrichment activities will continue regardless of whether an agreement is reached, the uncertainty of tariffs limits the increase in oil prices.
U.S. stocks rose for the fifth consecutive day last Friday, still boosted by an earlier tariff truce, despite economic survey data showing worsening consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 has steadily expanded its gains since late morning, and investors are calm about weak data. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed that the consumer sentiment index fell further in May, while one-year inflation expectations soared to 7.3% from 6.5% last month.
Lindsey Bell, chief market strategist at Clearnomics, said last Friday's rise was a "continuation of the downgrade of the trade conflict."
Because of a solid economy and pessimistic investors, Bell expects more volatility in the future as tariff headlines come out, adding, "NoThe data may change in the coming months, and I don't think we're out of the way. We must observe day by day, week by week. "
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the market is "cautiously optimistic" about the softening of trade stance, but is still watching the U.S.'s final attitude on tariffs.
Christopher said: "We haven't even started to see what happens when these tariffs are actually in effect, when companies have to raise prices to consumers, when consumers see less goods on the shelves, less variety. "
Investors are still waiting for the clarity of U.S. tax policy as Trump's comprehensive tax bill fails to pass a key procedural barrier as hardliners demanding greater spending cuts prevented the measure, a rare political setback for the Republican president in Congress.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42,654.74 last Friday; the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 5,958.38; and the Nasdaq rose 0.52% to 19,211.10 last week. The largest increase was healthcare stocks, which rose 1.96% in the day after a week of volatility.
Under eight consecutive days of sharp declines, United Health Group recovered lost ground last Friday, up 6.4% in the S&P 500.
The insurance company is accepting the After the Justice Department's criminal investigation, investors have cautious expectations for the company's strategic changes.
Among other stocks, chip manufacturing equipment supplier Applied Materials stock price fell 5.3%, and the company's second-quarter revenue was lower than expected.
On Monday, spot gold rose more than 1%, trading around 3242.88. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1 over the weekend, increasing market concerns. At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said on Sunday that if countries do not reach a trade agreement with the United States, tariffs will return to "reciprocal" levels. Gold prices are expected to return to the 3300 mark.
Gold prices fell more than 2% last Friday, as rising risk appetite from trade agreements dragged down and hit their worst week since November.
Spot gold fell 1.6% to $3,188.25 per ounce, down 4.1% last week. Last month, gold prices reached an all-time high of $3,500.05 amid escalating tariff tensions. U.S. gold futures closed down 1.2% at $3,187.2.
Jim Wycof, senior analyst at KitcoMetalsf said the easing of the trade war has brought risk appetite to the entire market. The shift has prompted futures traders to take profits, especially in the gold market, and has triggered a week-long wave of clearing positions. "
The three major Wall Street indexes have achieved weekly gains, mainly due to the growing risk appetite among investors after long-term uncertainty. Meanwhile, the recent slowdown in U.S. inflation data, coupled with weaker than expected economic data, has consolidated expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further this year. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, starting in September.
Spot silver fell 1.4% to $32.22 per ounce, down more than 1% last week. Platinum fell 0.6% to $984.10; palladium fell 1.2% to $956.72. Both sister metals also saw weekly declines.
Oil Prices closed higher on Friday, rising for the second straight week as trade tensions eased, but expectations of increased supply from Iran and OPEC+ curbed oil prices.
Brent crude oil closed up 1.4% to $65.41 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil closed up 1.4% to $62.49. The two indicators rose 1% and 2.4% weekly crude oil, respectively.
Iranian crude oil could return to global markets as Iran's nuclear deal could lead to sanctions easing, with the two indicator contracts falling more than 2%.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said the forecast for OPEC+ oil increase The period and the increased likelihood of the Iran nuclear deal have re-ignited short deals, and in the near future, strong seasonal tourism demand will be needed to offset the expected supply rise in the coming months as geopolitical cooling.
U.S. President Trump said on Friday that Iran has received U.S. proposals for its nuclear program and knows it needs to be taken quickly to resolve the decades-long dispute. But Tehran denies having received the proposal.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that global supply is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day from previous forecasts.
The dollar strengthened last Friday, with the dollar rising for the fourth consecutive week. The latest round of economic data shows import prices rebounding in April, while consumer confidence remained sluggish in May, as concerns over the impact of President Trump's trade policy increased.
The U.S. Labor Department said import prices rose 0.1% last month after falling 0.4% in March, as the soaring cost of capital goods surpassed the decline in energy prices. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted that import prices, including tariffs, would fall 0.4%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed that the consumer confidence index fell from the end of April of 52.2 to 50.8, below the estimated 53.4.In addition, consumer inflation expectations soared from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest level since November 1981. After the data was released, the US dollar began to strengthen.
The dollar rose more than 1% at the beginning of last week on Monday, but the dollar has been on a downward trend in the mid-week due to tepid economic data.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.36% to 101.13, and the dollar rose about 0.7% last week, the biggest single-week gain in about two and a half months. The euro fell 0.37% against the dollar to $1.1146, while the euro fell 0.9% last week, the biggest single-week decline since early February.
The dollar has fallen nearly 3% since US President Trump announced a series of tariffs on countries around the world on April 2. MonexUSA trading subjective JuanPerez said: "The idea that trade cannot get rid of turmoil continues to affect long-term confidence in the dollar."
The market has lowered expectations for the Fed's rate cut this year due to signs of easing trade tensions, believing that the central bank's first cut of at least 25 basis points at its September meeting is 67.1%. The previous view was that interest rate cuts may begin in July.
Recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the Fed needs more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy before adjusting its policy.
The US dollar rose 0.16% against the yen to 145.89 yen. Last Friday data showed that Japan's first-quarter GDP contracted for the first time in a year, and the shrinkage was faster than expected, highlighting the fragile economic recovery in the face of the threat of US President Trump's trade policy. The dollar rose 0.4% against the yen last week.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he would seek to discuss exchange rate issues with US Treasury Secretary Becent. The pound fell 0.2% to $1.327, down 0.1% last week.
A latest Japanese poll results show that the cabinet support rate led by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishibashi has dropped to 22%, on the verge of "resignation of the waters", the lowest since his rule; his cabinet's non-responsibility rate rose to 62%, far exceeding the support rate. In Japanese politics, a cabinet support rate below 30% will be regarded by public opinion as entering a "dangerous water"; if it falls further below 20%, it will be regarded as falling into a "resignation water". As of this month, Shipo's cabinet's support rate has been in "dangerous waters" for three consecutive months.
European Central Bank President Lagarde recently said in an interview with the French Sunday Tribune that the recent strengthening of the euro against the US dollar is caused by the capricious US policy of the United States, which is an opportunity for EuropeMeet. Lagarde points out that the dollar usually strengthens significantly during a time of uncertainty. But now the opposite situation occurs, with the euro strengthening against the US dollar. This seems counterintuitive, and the reasons behind it are increasing uncertainty and some financial markets lose confidence in US policies.
On the 18th local time, the 2025 Tehran Dialogue Forum opened in Tehran, the capital of Iran, with more than 200 senior officials from 53 countries attending the event. The forum will last for two days and discuss issues including the lifting of sanctions negotiations, disarmament in the Middle East, and nuclear and weapons of mass destruction. On the same day, Iranian President Pezekichiyan said at the forum that according to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran has the right to use peaceful nuclear technology for various purposes, including health, agriculture, industry and other important areas. The argument that Iran is developing nuclear weapons is just a basisless repeated speculation, and Iran will not succumb to force and will not accept any form of bullying. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi said at the forum that Iran is committed to diplomacy and hopes that unilateral sanctions against Iran can be lifted in a practical way.
Rating agency Moody's downgrades the U.S. sovereign credit rating one level on Friday (previously Fitch took similar actions in 2023 and S&P in 2011), citing concerns about the growing U.S. $36 trillion debt. In the short term, politically viable fiscal plans could lead to an expansion of the deficit without providing meaningful fiscal stimulus to the economy, said Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley. Anne Walsh, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partnership Investment Management, said that if Washington does not have a substantial procedure to significantly reset spending levels, the U.S. fiscal path is unlikely to improve significantly, saying "we are on an unsustainable path."
This weekend, negotiators in the UK and EU debated measures to relax travel restrictions on students, young workers and tourists, as both sides stepped up their settlement of policy disputes ahead of a summit aimed at resetting tensions. The UK and the EU have not reached an agreement on a youth exchange plan, hours before the UK’s head Stayed to host European Commission President von der Leyen and other European leaders in London on Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. Europeans are hesitant about the UK's desire to join its Erasmus+ student exchange program, people familiar with the matter said. So far, Britain has been reluctant to support policies that could prompt the influx of students and young workers in the country as Starmer tries to curb immigration. The EU is cautious about signing other travel-related commitments due to lack of progress in youth mobility, which are expected to be announced in an agreement announced on Monday, the person familiar with the matter said.
In response to the fact that US President Trump said when he visited the Middle East that he "he hopes for peace in the region", Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said on May 17 that Trump was "liking". Khamenei said the United States has never used its power to create peace, but has massacred in Gaza by providing Israel with weapons such as bombs weighing 10 tons, and bombing Lebanon and everything they can reach. Khamenei also said that the United States has been creating the illusion that "the Arab countries in the United States cannot survive without the United States", but this attempt failed. The country in the Middle East has decided, and the United States must and will eventually leave the Middle East.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott? Becente said on Sunday that if countries do not reach a trade agreement within the 90-day tariff moratorium, the tariff rate will soon return to "reciprocal" levels. "President Trump has warned them that if negotiations are not made in good faith, tariffs will rise to April 2 levels," Becent said on the show. Becente revealed that the United States is focusing on finalizing agreements with 18 "important" trading partners, but did not explain the specific speed at which tariffs can restore "equality" tax rates.
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