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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: The trade surplus in the euro zone expands, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 16". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major futures indexes rose, Dow futures rose 0.28%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.24%. European stocks opened higher collectively, with the FTSE 100 index in the UK rising 0.32%, the CAC40 index in France rising 0.00%, the Stokes 50 index in Europe rising 0.16%, the IBEX35 index in Spain rising 0.42%, the FTSE MIB index in Italy rising 0.25%, and the DAX30 index in Germany rising 0.41%.
⑴ The trade deficit between the United States and other countries has expanded in the first quarter, while exports of other countries have increased accordingly. The eurozone's trade surplus with the United States hit a record high in March. ⑵ Europe has started dialogue with the United States on trade issues, but there is little news of progress at present. ⑶ Europe has set up a list of retaliatory tariffs worth 100 billion euros in case negotiations with the US government fail. ⑷ Europe hopes to use this list to make the United States realize that it is willing to take retaliation measures rather than make concessions easily.
⑴ Chris Igo, chief investment officer of AXA Investment Management, said bond investors are concerned about inflation, and holding some inflation-linked bonds and high-yield assets may help optimize the investment portfolio. ⑵ Recent declines in energy prices have a ease of inflation, and no transmission effect of tariffs on final prices has been seen. ⑶ However, Igo pointed out that the United States, the euro zone and the United KingdomThe country's inflation rate seems to be stable at the current level, and it is still facing difficulties to reduce it to 2.0% or below. ⑷In addition, he also mentioned that tariff policies may bring the risk of rising inflation.
⑴ Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.7% month-on-month in the first quarter of this year, with a strong performance, but economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe that this should not prompt the Swiss National Bank to reduce its interest rate cut cycle. ⑵This growth is unlikely to trigger inflation, and the current Swiss inflation rate is zero. ⑶ Swiss economic growth is slowing, and industrial growth in the first quarter was driven by early actions by companies (to deal with tariff threats). ⑷Economists expect Swiss economic growth to fall to a negative range at the beginning of the second half of the year, but overall performance will still be better than the euro zone. ⑸ They also pointed out that the Swiss National Bank may cut interest rates again in June, bringing interest rates into a negative range.
On the 15th local time, Germany's new Prime Minister Friedrich Mertz made a statement regarding the United States and Russia's plan to restart the Baltic subsea gas pipeline "North Stream-2", saying that Germany will not approve the operation of the pipeline. German Times Weekly quoted Merz's statement: "'North Stream-2' has not yet obtained an operating license, and this situation is not expected to change." According to reports from the US, German and British media, the United States and Russia recently discussed the possibility of restarting the "North Stream-2" project during negotiations on the Russian-Ukraine ceasefire. The two sides propose that the US investors purchase natural gas from Russia and then resell it to Europe under the US brand. This trend has caused concern in the German political circle.
⑴ On May 16, the benchmark spot premium of the Middle East crude oil (Oman, Dubai and Murban) rose slightly on Friday, but it still recorded a decline during the week due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production from May. ⑵ Crude oil prices changed little on Friday and are expected to rise slightly this week as trade tensions eased, but expectations of Iran and OPEC+ increase in production partially offset the impact. ⑶Dubai crude oil cash premium rose 1 cent from swaps to $1.15 per barrel. ⑷Vitol and Gunvor will deliver Murban crude oil to be shipped in July respectively. ⑸Room Chemical plans to launch a new cracking device in Indonesia in the second half of 2025, executives of the Lotte Malaysian subsidiary said on Friday. ⑹ The UAE plans to increase its U.S. energy investment value to US$440 billion over the next decade, a move that will help U.S. business cooperation in the Gulf region. ⑺U.S. oil producer Chevron and several European companies are in talks with the U.S. government to obtain authorization to retain its shares in the Venezuelan National Petroleum Corporation joint venture. ⑻ Canadian oil and gas producer Strascona said on Thursday that it plans to acquire peer MEG Energy for CAD 5.93 billion (about US$4.25 billion), with the goal of becoming Canada's fifth largest oil producer.
⑴Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishardt pointed out that the UK may relax public spending regulations to increase defense spending and avoid tax increases in the fall budget. ⑵This move may push up UK Treasury yields and further worsen public fiscal conditions. ⑶In January this year, due to market concerns about the sustainability of the UK's fiscal, the yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond jumped to 4.921%, the highest level since 2008; the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.455%. ⑷ Currently, the 10-year and 30-year UK Treasury yields are 4.614% and 5.358% respectively.
⑴South African rand exchange rate hovered near the five-month high hit overnight. ⑵ The market bets that the South African central bank may lower its inflation target after the South African Ministry of Finance hinted on Thursday that it would make an upcoming adjustment. ⑶ Dutch International analyst Chris Turner said that the South African central bank hopes that inflation rate will be at the midpoint of the target range of 3%-6%, and the new target may be 3%. ⑷ This means that interest rates may need to remain high for a longer period of time. ⑸ Turner pointed out that the further rise of the rand will depend on global demand for South Africa's industrial commodities. ⑹Dutch International Group believes that the room for Rand to further appreciate is limited.
⑴ Citi Research analyst Tomohisa Fujiki pointed out that the weakness of Japan's ultra-long-term treasury yield "obviously requires action by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan." ⑵He suggested that reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds and integrating the maturity of ultra-long-term "rinban" operations is the easiest response. ⑶ The "rinban" operation is a bond purchase operation used by the Bank of Japan to manage the yield curve. ⑷ Fujiki Tomohisa said that if action is taken, the yield curve is expected to flatten, but the medium-term impact may be limited. ⑸ According to LSEG data, the latest trading price of Japan's 30-year Treasury bond yield is 2.952%, up 1 basis point from the previous trading day.
Euro/USD: As of 20:24 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1195, an increase of 0.09%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) fell in recent intraday trading, continuing to be under negative pressure as its trading is below EMA50, and its trading is within the bear market correction channel limiting its short-term trading, noting that (RSI) began to show negative overlap signals after reaching an overbought level that is exaggerated compared to price volatility.
GBP/USD: As of 20:24 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3280, a drop of 0.19%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) rose in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of its intraday trading in EAStable technical support above the M50, which strengthens the positive momentum of short-term prices, and with the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), the dominance of the main bullish trend in the short-term strengthens the scenario after reaching the oversold level, continuing to trade along a slash.
Spot gold: As of 20:24 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3168.88, a drop of 2.18%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell in recent intraday trading, trading along the bear market correction trend line on a short-term basis. After reaching the overbought level, negative signals appeared on (RSI), and settled below the main support of $3,200, strengthening the continuation of the bear market.
Spot silver: As of 20:24 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 31.957, a drop of 2.01%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price succumbed to negative pressure in recent day trading, falling as resistance stabilized at $32.70, and as its trading was below EMA50, accompanied by the formation of a negative divergence of (RSI), the price continued to fall after reaching an overbought level compared to the current movement of the price and the negative signals that appear from there.
Crude oil market: As of 20:24 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 61.240, an increase of 0.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose steadily in recent intraday trading, attempting to return above $61.25, indicating an attempt to surpass this key technical barrier, which occurred with continued trading above the EMA50, providing dynamic support and strengthening the stability of short-term trading.
Ruixun Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said that given that the global investment portfolio is highly concentrated in US companies, investors may need to increase the hedging efforts toward the risk of the weakening of the US dollar. This could further lower the US dollar valuation in the medium term. In the past, investors were not in a hurry to hedge the risk of a depreciation of the dollar, because the dollar usually strengthens due to inflows of safe-haven funds when market volatility intensifies. But the situation has been different recently: the dollar continues to weaken despite rising market volatility. This increase in volatility itself increases the hedging cost, resulting in an abnormal negative correlation between the US dollar and volatility. This situationIt is causing serious troubles to investors.
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