Retail sales growth in the United States slowed down in April, with gold rebounding nearly 2%!

On May 16, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.63. On Thursday, the US dollar index fell and finally closed down 0.22% to 100.79 due to a slowdown in retail sales growth in April and an unexpected decline in PPI monthly rate. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4350%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9820%. Spot gold closed up 1.97% to $3,239.21 an ounce on Thursday due to weak U.S. economic data, weak dollar and Putin’s absence of negotiations in Turkey. Spot silver finally closed up 1.30% at $32.62 per ounce. As the market expected the U.S. and Iran to reach a nuclear agreement, WTI crude oil closed down 2.63% to $61.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.89% to $64.53 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.63. US retail sales increased by 0.1% in April, exceeding expectations of flat growth, but failed to change market sentiment. U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in April, surpassing expectations of flat growth, but failed to change market sentiment. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Fed's communication methods are about to change and stressed the need to better deal with future supply shocks. Technically, from a technical point of view, the US dollar index needs to close below the support level of 100.20–100.40 to obtain additional downward momentum.

Euro: As of press time, Euro/USD hovered around 1.1206. Pan-European GDP data fell slightly, down to 0.3% month-on-month. Annualized GDP remains at 1.2%, but the weakness in the first quarter data still makes Fiber traders hesitate. In the United States, inflation of producer price index (PPI) in April fell only 0.1% month-on-month, allowing investors to relax temporarily, feeling that the tariff effect has not yet affected key economic data. Technically, if Euro/USD falls below 1.1150 level, it will test the recent support level 1.1110–1.1130.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3315. GBP/USD turned down on Thursday, cutting several points to stay within the short-term consolidation range slightly south of 1.3300, as the market more or less got the results they wanted in the release of economic data for the London and US market periods. Both the UK gross domestic product (GDP) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation exceeded market expectations, preventing excessive fluctuations in any direction. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closed above resistance at 1.3300–1.3320, it would move towards the next resistance at 1.3420–1.3440.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1)Gold market trend analysis

Trading analysis

On Thursday, gold trading around 3236. U.S. data showed that the producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.5% in April, failing to reach the expected 0.2% increase. Core PPI fell 0.4%, lower than the expected 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, retail sales slowed during the same period, up only 0.1% month-on-month, while March figures were raised to 1.7%. Economists had expected these figures to be the same as last month. The number of initial unemployment claims rose to 229,000 in the week ending May 10, which was in line with expectations and the same as the previous week. After the data was released, gold bulls regained the $3,200 mark

Technical: Gold has a V-shaped reversal, showing signs of recovery again. This is a market trying to find its bottom. King Kong rose above the 3200 mark, erasing all liquidity, and investors are looking for evidence that the trend can continue. If the closing closes above the 3200 mark today, more bulls will be seen entering the market, and it may even return to $3500. On the other hand,If you break the 3100 mark again, you may test the 3000 mark downward. Because of this, I believe this is a market for buying on dips.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading around 61.09. WTI prices fell slightly as expected by the expectation that the United States (US) and Iran may soon reach an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program. A senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader said Wednesday that Iran is preparing to sign a nuclear deal with U.S. President Donald Trump with certain conditions in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. On Thursday, Trump said the United States is approaching a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran has agreed to the terms “to some extent”. The development of possible nuclear agreements could put pressure on WTI prices.

Technical: When Donald Trump said that the United States was close to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, he withdrew it. If WTI crude oil falls below the $60.00 level, it will move towards the next support level of $57.50 – $58.00.

Forex market trading reminder on May 16, 2025

①Hangzhou Index Company announced the results of the series of reviews of the Hang Seng Index

②13:30 France's first quarter ILO unemployment rate

③17:00 Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade account

④20:30 The total number of new houses started in the United States in April was annualized

⑤20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in April

⑥20:30 The United States in April import price index Monthly rate

⑦22:00 The expected initial value of the US May one-year inflation rate

⑧22:00 The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May

⑨The next day 01:00 The total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to May 16

The above content is about "[XM Forex Official Website]: The growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed down in April, and gold rebounded nearly 2%!" was carefully compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Every successful person has a beginning. Only by having the courage to start can you find the way to success. Read the next article now!