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The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data

Post time: 2025-05-15 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The United States does not seek to depreciate the US dollar in tariff negotiations, and its focus will turn to Powell and the United States hard data." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On May 15, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.94. On Wednesday, the U.S. will not seek a weak dollar in tariff negotiations after market news said the U.S. trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea and India was "closely reached", and the U.S. will not seek a weak dollar in tariff negotiations. The U.S. dollar index rebounded after falling close to the $100 mark and finally closed up 0.11% to 101.04. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.5380%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0570%, which is more sensitive to monetary policy. Spot gold hit a more than one-month low as trade optimism heated up, ending down 2.24% to $3,176.58 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 2.1% at $32.20 per ounce. EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased last week, causing investors to worry about oversupply. WTI crude oil finally closed down 1.19% at $62.82 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.16% at $65.77 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100.94. It fell to the 100 mark on Wednesday around 100.60. The decline comes after U.S. inflation data fell below expectations and confirmation of U.S. and South Korea's negotiations on currencies, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar is at a disadvantage in the face of most major Asian currencies. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index rebounds above the 101.00 level, it will move towards resistance at 101.40–101.60.

The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1193. Despite rising early buying, the momentum of the euro/dollar fell sharply on Wednesday, maintaining a steady trend near the 1.1200 mark. Most European economic data this week failed to attract market attention, which is also the norm. However, the double shock of key inflation data in the United States provides discussion for many traders. Technically, if the euro/dollar falls below the 1.1200 level, it will move towards a support level in the range of 1.1110–1.1130.

The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3275. GBP/USD cut its recent gains on Wednesday, falling back to the low of the 1.3300 mark and fell into a short-term volatility consolidation phase again as investors prepare for the double release of key data from the UK and the US on Thursday. The U.S. market session will be followed by the U.S. producer price index (PPI) inflation. Technically, if GBP/USD falls below 50MA, it will move to a support level of 1.3200–1.3220. On the plus side, breaking through the 1.3320 level will push GBP/USD toward resistance level 1.3420–1.3440.

The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3182.48. As risk appetite improvement and trade negotiations make progress, the potential upward space for gold may be restricted in the short term. As tensions in the global trade war ease, precious metals remain on the defensive, forcing investors to stay away from safe-haven demand. The United States and China agreed to lower tariffs on each other after two-day negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The United States lowered tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China lowered tariffs on U.S. imported goods from 125% to 10%.

The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data(图4)

Technical: From a technical point of view, the daily chart of the gold currency pair shows that it further falls below the now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the technical indicator recovers to decline within the negative level, consistent with another lower line. 100 and 200SMA continue to rise, but are well below the current level and therefore not related. In the short term, gold is bearish based on the 4-hour chart. The pair trades below all its moving averages, and the 20SMA is about to fall below the 200SMA. The latter is $3,232, providing relevant resistance in the case of recovery. Finally, the technical indicators lack sideThe tropic intensity, but remains within a negative level, reflects a lack of buying interest.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 61.78. WTI prices fell sharply due to unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories and concerns about demand. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, sparking concerns among investors about oversupply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report shows that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.454 million barrels in the week ending May 9, compared with a decrease of 2.032 million barrels the previous week. The market generally expects inventory to drop by 1 million barrels.

The U.S. does not seek a dollar depreciation in tariff negotiations, focus turns to Powell and U.S. hard data(图5)

Technical: If WTI crude oil successfully closes above 50MA, it will move towards the resistance level of $66.00 – $66.50.

Forex market trading reminder on May 15, 2025

①To be determined the Federal Reserve holds the Thomas Laubach Research Association

②To be determined Zelensky and Putin have direct negotiations

③14:00The initial value of the first quarter GDP annual rate in the UK

④14:00The UK’s three-month GDP monthly rate in March

⑤14:00The UK’s March seasonally adjusted commodity trade Account

⑥14:00 UK's monthly output rate in March

⑦14:45 France's April CPI monthly rate final value

⑧16:00 IEA released its monthly crude oil market report

⑨17:00 Eurozone's first quarter GDP annual rate correction value

⑩17:00 Eurozone's first quarter quarterly adjusted employment final value

17:00 Eurozone's March industrial production Monthly rate

20:30 Canadian March wholesale sales monthly rate

20:30 Number of people who requested unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to May 10

20:30 US April retail sales monthly rate

20:30 US April PPI annual rate and monthly rate

20:30 US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index

20:30 US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

>20:40 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the meeting

21:15 US industrial output monthly rate in April

22:00 US May NAHB Real Estate Market Index

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