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The trade war seems to be on hold for the time being, central bank speech attracts attention

Post time: 2025-05-14 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The trade war seems to be temporarily shelved, and the central bank's speech has attracted attention." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On May 14, the major currency pairs experienced a relatively calm early Wednesday after experiencing a volatile start. As the economic calendar doesn't provide any high-impact data releases, investors will follow comments from central bank officials and evaluate the latest trade negotiations.

The US dollar (USD) was under bearish pressure on Tuesday after outperformed its competitors in the U.S.-China trade deal on Monday. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in April, both lower than the market expectations of 0.3%. The dollar index fell about 0.8% on the day, erasing most of Monday's gains. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again, believing that there is no inflation.

In the Asian trading session, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that the wage price index rose by 0.9% month-on-month in the first quarter. This figure is higher than the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter and exceeds market expectations of 0.8%. After gaining about 1.5% on Tuesday, the AUD/USD remained stable in early European trading on Wednesday, with intraday trading just above 0.6470. Market participants will closely monitor Australia's employment data for April on Thursday.

Basic foreign exchange market trend:

Euro/USD gained bullish momentum on Tuesday, with an increase of nearly 1%. The pair remained calm, fluctuating narrowly around 1.1200, beginning Wednesday's European trading session.

The GBP/USD appears to have entered a consolidation phase around 1.3300 after rising 1% on Tuesday.

The US dollar/yen turned down after a strong rebound on Monday, down about 0.75% on Tuesday.The pair continued to decline early on Wednesday, trading near 147.00.

The USD/Canadian closed in the negative range on Tuesday, ending a four-day uptrend. The pair stabilizes above 1.3900 at the beginning of the European trading session.

Bulle market fundamentals:

U.S. crude oil prices fell 0.5% to $63.35 per barrel, still close to a two-week high. Spot gold fell slightly to around $3,220.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar remains neutral at present. The 38.2% retracement level of 1.1039 from 1.0176 to 1.1572 is expected to provide strong support to complete the correction from 1.1572. On the plus side, breaking through the 1.1292 resistance level will retest the 1.1572 high. However, a continued breakthrough of 1.1039 will weaken this view and aim at the next 61.8% retracement level of 1.0709.

The trade war seems to be on hold for the time being, central bank speech attracts attention(图1)

Pound: The intraday bias of pound/dollar remains neutral first. On the plus side, breaking through the 1.3221 resistance level will indicate that the pullback from 1.3442 has been completed. The 1.3433/42 resistance zone should be retested next. A resolute breakthrough will restore a larger upward trend. On the downside, a correction will be restored if it is below 1.3138. But the downside space should be curbed by the 38.2% retracement level of 1.2099 to 1.3442 to bring about a rebound.

The trade war seems to be on hold for the time being, central bank speech attracts attention(图2)

Yen: The intraday bias of the US dollar/yen first becomes neutral. But as long as the support level of 142.43 is held, it is expected to rebound further. As mentioned earlier, the decline from 158.86 may have completed 139.87. Above 148.64, the 61.8% retracement level of 151.60 will be aimed at 158.86 to 139.87.

The trade war seems to be on hold for the time being, central bank speech attracts attention(图3)

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The trade war seems to be temporarily shelved, and the speech of the central bank has attracted attention". It was carefully compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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