The US CPI annual rate fell unexpectedly in April, and gold recovered the 3250 mark!

On May 14, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.94. On Tuesday, the U.S. CPI data fell slightly below expectations, giving up most of the previous day's gains and ended up closing down 0.79% at 100.98. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4730%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0150%. Stimulated by CPI data, spot gold recovered the 3250 mark and finally closed up 0.43% to $3250.10 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 0.97% to $32.90 per ounce. As the Sino-US trade agreement rekindled investors' enthusiasm for commodities and the boost of inflation data, WTI crude oil finally closed up 2.67% to $63.58 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.45% to $66.54 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100.94. Traders remain cautious amid a blur of trade commitments with China and the UK, with new uncertainty emerging after President Trump pushed for ambitious investment and tax plans without detailing how they would impact the economy. Despite the headlines of tariff downgrades, Fitch's effective tariff rate on Chinese goods remains above 40%, heightening doubts about the durability of the recent agreement. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 101.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support, which is in the range of 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1189. The euro/dollar rose on Tuesday, regaining most of the losses at the beginning of the week. The pair is now testing the 1.1200 mark, thanks to the weakening of the U.S. dollar in the overall market, rather than any specific bullish momentum driving the euro market flow. The German Consumer Price Coordinated Index (HICP) will be released during the European market hours on Wednesday, but non-preliminary data is unlikely to attract much attention. Pan-European's first-quarter GDP data will also be released on Thursday, but the market median forecast is expected to be similar to the previous quarter. Technically, breaking through the 1.1200 level will open the way for testing the nearest resistance level 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3308. The GBP/USD gained a buy on Tuesday, rebounding above the 1.3300 mark, reversing losses earlier this week, with global markets volatile around the overall liquidity of the dollar. The UK labor data had little impact on the market, and the market's response to U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was just as bland. Investors continue to pay attention to the general sentiment brought about by ongoing trade deal negotiations between the Trump administration and other parties, yet all trade tariff concessions made by the Trump team are strictly temporary. The pound market will await the latest UK first-quarter GDP growth data released on Thursday. Technically, the closest resistance level of GBP/USD is in the range of 1.3300–1.3320. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3320 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3420–1.3440.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, gold trading was around 3240.93. After a plunge on Monday, gold prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday (May 13), with spot gold closing at $3,249.86 per ounce on Tuesday, up 0.47%. The influx of buying on dips provides support to gold prices, and the US April CPI was weaker than market expectations, the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down, the US dollar index fell from a one-month high, and geopolitical concerns and other factors provide rising momentum for gold prices. Economic data on this trading day are relatively small. US Secretary of State Rubio attended an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO's security priorities, including increasing defense investment and ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will make speeches, investors needPay attention.

Technical aspect: It can be observed from the daily chart that the recent gold price trend shows obvious technical characteristics. Gold prices have formed a clear upward channel since March, and after breaking through the 3200 mark in April, they once hit a high of 3499.83, and then followed by a pullback. Currently, the gold price is around US$3,250 and has fallen back to the middle and lower track position of the upward channel. The RSI indicator is currently in the neutral area of ​​49.94, indicating that there is neither overbought nor oversold, and the market is in a relatively balanced state. The CCI index value is -109.87, which is located in the oversold range, indicating that there may be a technical rebound in the short term. Judging from the Bollinger Band indicator, the current price is near the Bollinger middle rail (3269.26), the lower rail is 3041.55, and the upper rail is 3496.96. The price stabilized after it fell back to the middle track, indicating that the market still maintains the integrity of the upward trend. It is particularly worth noting that an important support area is formed near the 3200 integer mark, which is consistent with the support of the previous high point conversion.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 63.05. Crude oil futures climbed more than $1.60 a barrel on Tuesday, boosted by temporary tariff cuts and better-than-expected inflation reports. Economic data on this trading day are relatively small. US Secretary of State Rubio attended an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO's security priorities, including increasing defense investment and ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. In addition, many Federal Reserve officials will make speeches and investors need to pay attention.

Technical: Technically, there was a negative signal in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had previously reached an overbought level. This makes the price start looking for a rising bottom, using it as a support base to get the positive momentum needed to recover. Meanwhile, crude oil prices trade along a bullish correction trend line in the short term and continue to gain positive support as their price remains above EMA50. It is worth noting that RSI has reached an oversold level, showing weak seller momentum compared to the current price trend.

Forex market trading reminder on May 14, 2025

① To be determined OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report

②14:00 Germany's April CPI final value

③17:15 Federal Reserve Director Waller delivered a speech

④21:10 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech

⑤22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to May 9

⑥22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to May 9

⑦22:30 The EIA strategic oil reserve inventory in the week from the United States to May 9

⑧The next day, the Federal Reserve Daly attended a fireside conversation

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