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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Comment】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Enhanced Sino-US economic and trade relations: According to the joint statement of the Sino-US economic and trade talks between China and the United States, the two sides suspended the 24% tariff imposed on each other's goods from May 14, with a period of 90 days, retaining the 10% benchmark tariff, and canceling the additional tariffs under some previous executive orders. This move eases the risk of escalating trade frictions, enhances market confidence in global economic growth, and is conducive to national currencies with high correlation with Sino-US trade, such as the RMB, the Canadian dollar, etc. At the same time, market risk preferences have increased, and capital flows have become more active, which has also boosted emerging market currencies.
Related expectations of the European Central Bank: Commerzbank analysts pointed out that vaccine injection actions in euro zone countries are further on track. Against the backdrop of increased US vaccine exports, the EU is still expected to catch up with the previously formulated vaccine injection progress by the end of June. This will constitute a sustained positive for the outlook for the euro exchange rate trend, especially the euro and the Swiss franc are expected to rise further. If the epidemic in the euro zone is further controlled as expected, the European Central Bank will also face an opportunity to reduce its policy easing efforts, which will further strengthen the euro in the long run.
U.S. economic data supports the US dollar: the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell to 473,000 in the week of May 8, the lowest since the week of March 14 last year. Strong employment data tend to be more favorable to the US dollar, indicating that the US job market is gradually recovering and economic fundamentals have improved, increasing market confidence in the US dollar and helping the US dollar maintain a strong position in the foreign exchange market.
Tenuous geopolitical situation: Israel continues to advance military operations in the Gaza Strip, and the Pakistan-Israel conflict negotiations may restart in Doha. Tensions in the Middle East may disturb crude oil supply expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty will trigger market risk aversion, causing funds to flow to traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, and have a negative impact on commodities-related currencies, such as the Canadian dollar. At the same time, tensions will also intensify market concerns about global economic growth, affecting the performance of risky assets, and indirectly affecting the exchange rate of related currencies.
Federal officials spoke hawkishly: Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson stressed that interest rates remain unchanged until inflation eased. This hawkish statement made the market more cautious about the Fed's expectations for a year's interest rate cut. Higher interest rates are expected to attract capital flows into the United States, supporting the US dollar, but for other currencies, the exchange rate may be suppressed.
Japan's economic recovery is blocked: Japan's national corporate bankruptcy rose by 5.7% year-on-year in April. Although the preliminary balance of payments announced by the Japanese Ministry of Finance for 2024 showed a current account surplus of 30.3771 trillion yen, a record high, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the government is ready to take "extra measures" to offset the impact of US tariff policies, and was cautious about lowering consumption tax, suggesting that Japan's economic recovery is still under certain pressure, which may have a certain negative impact on the yen exchange rate.
The above information is compiled from public content and is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The foreign exchange market is complex and changeable, and investors need to consider various factors in a comprehensive way and make decisions with caution.
The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Review】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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