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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: Five major events that will happen in the global market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In terms of data, tenacious American consumers are attracting much attention. However, diplomatic storms about trade, in particular, may trigger greater action.
1. China-US easing relations
Reduced by 115% - the United States will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese goods, while Beijing only imposes a 10% tariff on American goods. While the agreement lasts only 90 days, the news has provided a significant relief for trade and may help avoid recession.
In addition, the two sides have set up a framework to further resolve differences. One option on the desktop is to reach a procurement agreement, with China pledging to buy U.S. goods to reduce the trade deficit.
The current tariffs are still higher than before the Trump 2.0 era and may rise in 90 days. However, a good atmosphere from Switzerland, where the two countries meet on weekends, may lead to further agreements. Additionally, the discussion channel has been reset. The market may cheer on these moves for a long time.
In addition to Sino-US relations, the market also hopes to see progress in other transactions such as India, Japan and Switzerland. The more the better, but the biggest prize is still China.
2. The war last week, now peace?
The two nuclear-weaponed countries, India and Pakistan, seem to be far from the brink of a full-scale war. However, this is a geopolitical frontline that the world will closely monitor.
On the other hand, U.S. President Trump will visit the Middle East, with one of his goals being to reach an agreement with Iran. Both sides reported progress, and a ceasefire between the United States and the Houthi forces in Yemen is seen as a step in reaching an agreement with Iran's nuclear facilities.
If Washington and Tehran announce swap ambassadors, oil prices will be subject toto the impact. Although Iran exports crude oil, its export volume is lower than production capacity and is troubled by long-term insufficient investment.
The third and last geopolitical front is in Europe. Russian President Putin called for direct dialogue with Ukraine, while Kiev insisted on a 30-day ceasefire first. Either move is good news for Europe and will put pressure on oil prices. The release of Russian crude oil to Europe will also increase production.
3. Core inflation in the United States may rise, keeping interest rates unchanged
Tuesday, 20:30 Beijing time. Ultimately – After several years, the U.S. core consumer price index (core CPI, core CPI, fell below 3% in March. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) tracks another inflation indicator, the CPI report was released early, and another decline would provide optimism for central banks.
However, April data may begin to reflect Trump’s tariff announcement early last month. Economists expect core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% recorded in March.
Investors to Fed Chairman Jerome Bowie Er refused to hint that interest rates will be cut in June and will not like any price increases. Unexpected downward surprises will reopen hopes of reducing borrowing costs.
4. US retail sales may be a variable
Thursday, 20:30 Beijing time. Do U.S. consumers convey an attitude of "business as usual" against the background of tariffs? Is shopping increased by expected price increases? Or has it already declined?
After total retail sales jumped 1.5% in March, the economic calendar pointed to 0. 1% moderate growth. However, there is room for surprise on both sides.
Investors will also focus on the retail sales control group, which grew 0.4% in March.
While these numbers are highly volatile, they provide hard data on the performance of the U.S. economy.
5. U.S. consumer confidence may continue to recover
Friday, 22:00 Beijing time. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index almost fell below the 50 level in April, marking a trough that has not been seen in years. Fear and concerns about the government’s efficiency department (DOGE, staff layoffs have caused confidence to drop. However, confidence has rebounded after President Trump’s announcement of delays in peer tariffs and other exemptions.
The decline in confidence has not been reflected in hard data such as retail sales or in evidence from credit card companies such as Visa.
However, the magnitude of confidence collapse makes these soft data important. The upcoming data is the preliminary reading for May.
The above is about “【XM Group]: The entire content of the five major events that will happen in the global market this week was carefully compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for your support!
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