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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold prices have fallen, US oil bulls have obvious directions, and good news comes from trade negotiations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (May 12, Beijing time), spot gold fell by more than 1.6%, and trading around 3277. Due to good news from early trade negotiations, U.S. crude oil rose slightly, trading around 61.37 US dollars per barrel. Investors are optimistic about tariff negotiations. There may be more tariff news during the day, so we will pay attention to it. US President Trump posted on his social media early this morning in Beijing time that the content of the posts he posted will be one of the most important and influential content he has ever posted. Please look forward to it!
Federal Governor Coogler delivered a speech; many monetary policy committee members of the Bank of England delivered speeches; Euro Group meeting was held, and news related to trade negotiations was reported.
The market focused on tariff contacts in Switzerland over the weekend, and Ameriprise chief economist Russell Price said: The results remain to be seen and any results are possible. ”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29% to 41,249.38 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% to 5,659.91 points; the Nasdaq remained flat at 17,928.92 points. Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, the Nasdaq fell 0.27%, and the Dow fell 0.16%. At 450, which was released as of Friday morning, the financial report was announced.About 76% of the S&P 500 companies exceeded analyst expectations. But due to uncertainty in the trade environment, many companies have also lowered or withdrawn their financial forecasts.
India has proposed to reduce the tariff gap between the country and the United States from its current close to 13% to below 4% in exchange for exemptions to avoid "current and potential" U.S. tariff hikes, sources said.
The energy sector climbed 1.1%, leading the rise among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with oil prices following the upswing in optimism ahead of the U.S.-China talks. The health care sector fell 1.1%, the worst performing sector.
Feders who spoke first after the policy meeting last week reiterated last Friday that current economic uncertainty requires monetary policy to remain patient as the Trump administration’s trade policy exacerbates risks to the economic outlook. This echoes Chairman Powell's speech at the meeting.
The ratio of the number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange rose and fell was 1.35:1, and the ratio of the number of stocks on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange fell and rose was 1.06:1. Six S&P 500 index stocks hit 52-week highs, three hit new lows, 53 NASDAQ index stocks hit new highs, and 97 hit new lows.
Gold prices opened on Monday, trading around 3278. According to CCTV, substantial progress in trade negotiations over the weekend. Gold prices rose more than 1% last Friday and the dollar fell, and the market digested US President Trump's tariff remarks. Spot gold was $3340.29 per ounce, up 1.1% and up 3.1% last week. US gold futures closed up 1.1% and settled at $3,344. Gold prices have risen by more than 27% this year.
In terms of geopoliticality, India and Pakistan accused each other of launching new military attacks and using drones and artillery. The worst battle between the two countries in nearly three decades has entered its third day. "Obviously, the overall ongoing uncertainty in tariffs may remain the most important support behind gold," said David Meger, director of metal trading at HighRidge Futures. We may enter a period of consolidation or callback for a period of time. "
In physical gold, Indian gold traders offered price discounts last week amid weak demand, weakening rupee lifted local gold prices to near historical highs, and buying activities of major Asian powers rebounded after the holidays.
Federal Governor Barr said Trump's trade policy could push up inflation, lower economic growth and raise unemployment later this year, leaving policymakers likely to face a difficult choice on which issue to deal with.
Spot silver rose 0.8% to $32.75 per ounce; platinum rose about 2% to $995.10; palladium climbed 0.2% to $977.68.
Oil prices closed up nearly 2% last Friday, marking their first weekly gain since mid-April,Investors are optimistic about tariff negotiations that helped the United States and Britain reach a trade deal.
Brent crude oil futures rose 1.7% to close at $63.91 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.9% to close at $61.02. Crude oil rose more than 4% last week, two major indicators. "Although the energy market has been bearish, it eventually got rid of some of the pessimism and as trade relations began to make progress, optimism reappeared with the wider market," said Alex Hodes, oil analyst at brokerage firm StoneX. The outlook for oil prices remains uncertain, largely dependent on the U.S. economic trend, its trade policy and the implementation of sanctions on Iran and Russia, which imposed sanctions on Thursday on the third independent refinery to buy Iranian crude oil. Over the weekend, the fourth round of Iran's nuclear negotiations will be held in Oman.
Last week, OPEC+, an oil-producing alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, planned to increase oil production, limiting oil price increases.
The US dollar is expected to rise weekly against major currencies such as the Swiss franc, the yen and the euro, after a trade deal reached by the United States and Britain increased optimism about tariff talks.
Matthew Weller, head of market research at StoneX, said that various markets have strong optimism about progress in trade talks, especially the broader trade deal. The Trump administration appears to be extending a series of olive branches to different countries, and the worst period of trade wars and tariffs may be over. This is what the market begins to digest. "
The dollar is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive week. But the dollar fell slightly by 0.01% to 0.83150 Swiss francs last Friday.
The euro fell against the dollar for the third consecutive week. However, the euro rose 0.17% against the dollar last Friday to $1.125,025.
The dollar rose against the Japanese yen for the third consecutive week, but fell 0.39% to 145.355 yen last Friday.
The pound rose against the dollar and was still expected to achieve weekly gains against the dollar after falling after the U.S.-UK trade agreement was announced last Thursday. The pound rose 0.50% to 1. $3306.
The decisions of central banks last week vary: the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England lowers interest rates. Sweden and Norway central banks maintain interest rates stable.
According to foreign media reports, a senior U.S. government's Middle East envoy Witkov held a fourth round of direct and indirect talks with Iran in Muscat, Oman, on Sunday, and the two sides discussed the "technical elements" of the nuclear agreement. The officialThe official said that the United States and Iran have agreed to hold another talk in the near future.
The Central Election Management Committee of South Korea reported on the 11th that the work of candidates for the 21st presidential election ended that night, and a total of 7 presidential candidates completed the registration procedures. These 7 people are: Lee Jae-ming, the presidential candidate of the Kuomintang Party, Kim Moon-soo, the candidate of the reform new party, Lee Jun-seok, the candidate of the Democratic Workers' Party of Human Rights, the candidate of the Free Unification Party Qiu Zhuwa (sound), the candidate of the non-party candidate Song Zhenhao, and the candidate of the non-party candidate Huang Jiaoan. The Central Election Management Committee stated that candidates can conduct a 22-day formal election campaign from 0:00 local time on the 12th.
The UK government plans to tighten visa requirements to reduce the number of workers entering the country through legal channels, and measures taken include setting new academic requirements for those applying for technical visas and limiting low-skill visas. The government will also announce adjustments to the deportation and repatriation rules to make it easier to expel foreign criminals committed in the UK, and a team will be assigned to identify industries that are overly dependent on foreign labor. The changes are intended to reduce the number of immigrants to the UK, and the government expects to reduce the number of low-skill visas by up to 50,000 by next year.
Russian President Putin said that Russia has proposed a ceasefire initiative against Ukraine more than once, and Kiev has violated these (ceasefire) agreements. Russia has previously stated that it may extend the recent ceasefire agreement, and Kiev has not responded to Russia's proposal. During the three-day ceasefire, Ukraine attempted to attack the Russian border. These attacks have been repelled. Kyiv attempts to intimidate leaders of countries who come to Moscow to attend the Victory Day celebration. Russia has never refused to talk with Ukraine. Russian President Putin proposed to restart negotiations in Kiev, proposing to start direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15. Hopefully, serious negotiations are underway, and the root causes of the conflict need to be eliminated. Negotiations do not rule out the possibility of a real ceasefire. Ukraine must now make a decision.
The UK is about to reach an agreement with Trump to exempt its £40 billion aerospace sector from U.S. tariffs. British Commerce Secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed this weekend that the agreement will also "clearly guarantee zero tariffs in the aerospace sector." He also opened the door to increasing the quota for UK-made cars that could enjoy a lower 10% U.S. import tax. Earlier, Britain and the United States reached their first trade agreement since Trump took trade protectionist measures on imported products, reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum to zero and tariffs on automobile exports to 10%. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik also said that Rolls-Royce aircraft engines and "such aircraft parts" will enjoy tariff exemptions.
U.S. President Trump: I will sign the executive order at the White House at 9 a.m. tomorrow (21 a.m. Beijing time on Monday). Prescription drugs and medicine prices will be reduced almost immediately by 30% to 80%, and the United States will buy drugs at the lowest-priced countries in the world. Previously, Trump previewed that he would release one of the most important and influential content.
Many foreign media reported on the 10th that US Treasury Secretary Becent wrote to the US Congress on the 9th local time saying that the federal government's cash reserves and means of controlling debts within the statutory limits may be exhausted in August. He urged the U.S. Congress to take action to increase or suspend debt ceilings before Congress adjourns in mid-July. The US Fortune magazine website reported on the 10th that the United States had hit the current statutory debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion in early January this year, and the Treasury Department has been taking so-called unconventional measures to avoid possible defaults on federal debt. Republicans are pushing for legislation that can increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, but reports believe that voting on the debt ceiling can be politically difficult.
From May 10 to 11, China and the United States held high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland. The Chinese delegation stated at a press conference that the two sides had in-depth exchanges on economic and trade issues of concern to each other. The atmosphere of the talks was frank, in-depth and constructive, substantial progress was made and important consensus was reached. The two sides agreed to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarify the leaders of both sides, and conduct further consultations on economic and trade issues of their respective concerns. China and the United States will finalize the relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement reached at the talks on May 12.
Statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of April, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US$328.17 billion, an increase of US$41 billion from the end of March, an increase of 1.27%, and has stabilized at more than US$3.2 trillion for 17 consecutive months. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that in April, the US dollar index fell due to factors such as macro policies and economic growth expectations in major economies, and global financial asset prices rose and fell. my country's economy is showing a positive trend, with strong resilience and vitality in economic development, which is conducive to the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.
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