The Fed has remained silent for the third time in a row, with gold falling by more than $60!

On May 8, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.81. On Wednesday, the dollar index strengthened and finally closed up 0.47% to 99.86 as the Federal Reserve remained silent and Powell reiterated his willingness to wait for the prospects to become clearer. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2740%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7870%. Due to the market's optimistic attitude towards trade negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, spot gold fell by more than $60 during the day and finally closed down 2.12% at $3364.07/oz; spot silver closed down 2.28% at $32.43/oz. WTI crude oil eventually closed down 1.81% at $57.91 per barrel as hopes of a nuclear deal with the United States alleviated market concerns about a decrease in crude oil supply; Brent crude oil closed down 1.76% at $60.92 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.81. The dollar index initially fell to 99.50 after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, citing rising risks on both sides of the country's dual mission. The policy statement was cautious in its tone, stressing that while the labor market remains solid, uncertainty over the economic outlook has increased. Traders had briefly priced at most three interest rate cuts this year, but market confidence waned as the press conference unfolded. Technically, if the US dollar index successfully closes above 50MA at 99.58, it will move towards the nearest resistance level, which is in the range of 100.20–100.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1313. Euro/dollar remained medium on Wednesday and still hovered around the 1.1300 mark, after the latest Fed interest rate decisions matched traders’ expectations, despite the new “waiting and watching” warning from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The European economic calendar this week remains strictly at the middle level, leaving Fiber traders to wait for the Fed’s increasingly cautious attitude. Technically, if Euro/dollar closes 1.1345 below 50MA, it will move towards its nearest support level 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3299. GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, up four basis points in the day, testing the 1.3400 mark as news of a possible U.S.-UK trade deal will allow the UK to avoid the shock of the Trump administration's aggressive pursuit of trade tariffs. The Federal Reserve is about to hold an interest rate meeting on Wednesday, which remains a key event in the market this week. Although the market is widespread The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely follow the comments of policy makers, especially the statement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in search of any signs that the Fed may enter a rate cut cycle ahead of schedule. Technically, if GBP/USD falls below its recent support level 1.3300–1.3320, it will move towards the next support level 1.3200–1.3220.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Trend of gold trading

Trades on Thursday, gold trading around 3381.7. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% at its third consecutive meeting in 2025, citing intensified uncertainty about the economic outlook and the rising risks of maximum employment and price stability.

Technical: Gold prices fall below 3400, but remain bullish. However, buyers must regain this level in order to continue to hope to reach the target of 3450. If these levels are broken, bulls may test the gold all-time high (ATH) of 3500. On the other hand, if gold prices fall below 3350, it may pave the way for testing the cyclical low of 3202 on May 1. If the decline further, sellers may challenge 3113's 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

2) Crude oil market trendsAnalysis

Crude oil trading around 57.78 in Asian session on Thursday. International oil prices fell slightly as U.S. gasoline stocks unexpectedly increased market concerns about weak demand for refined oil, while investors were closely watching the upcoming high-level trade talks between China and the United States in Switzerland this weekend. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that unexpected increases in U.S. gasoline inventories last week have caused markets to worry that demand is still weak as the "pilot season" approaches at the end of this month.

Technical: Crude oil prices have fallen as traders are still worried about the negative impact of the trade war. If WTI oil prices fall below the $57.50-$58.00 support level, it will move to the next support level in the $53.50-$54.00 range.

Forex market trading reminder on May 8, 2025

①10:00 State Information Office held a press conference

②14:00 German March seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate

③14:00 German March seasonally adjusted trade account

④14:00 UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted housing price index monthly rate

⑤15:00 Ministry of Commerce held its first regular press conference in May

⑥1 9:02 The Bank of England released interest rate resolution and monetary policy report

⑦20:30 Number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States to May 3

⑧22:00 Monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States in March

⑨22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the United States to May 2

⑩23:00 US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in April

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