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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Chaos continue at the Newark Airport in the United States, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 7". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose together. Dow futures rose 0.68%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.60%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.61%. The German DAX index fell 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.38%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.59%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.25%.
Since April 28, due to the shortage of air traffic control personnel and equipment failures, the United States Newark Airport has experienced large-scale flight delays or cancellations for many consecutive days. As of today (May 7), there has not been any improvement. The FAA previously said the problem was initially caused by a failure of terminal telecommunications and radar equipment that guided the aircraft into and out of Newark Airport. Due to insufficient air traffic control personnel, flight delays at Newark Airport continued to worsen. Newark Airport is only 26 kilometers away from Manhattan, New York, and is an important aviation hub in the northeastern United States. The Federal Aviation Administration said that the outdated U.S. air traffic control system is dragging down transportation efficiency, and if the problem is not solved in time, Newark Airport may not be able to return to normal in the next few weeks or even months.
⑴ The Federal Reserve expects to keep interest rates unchanged after the end of Wednesday's meeting and waiting for the economic outlook to become clearer. ⑵ US economic data is mixed: GDP fell in the first quarter, business and consumer confidence fell, but employment data is strong and consumer spending is healthy. ⑶Trump's tariff policy has increased uncertainty, and its impact on inflation may not appear in the next few months. ⑷Federal Chairman Powell said that if inflation rises, inflation will be controlled rather than interest rate cuts. ⑸ Although the market expected employment growth to slow down, the number of new jobs in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. ⑹In the first quarter, GDP contraction was partly due to a surge in imports, and imports may decline in the next few months, thus passively driving economic growth. ⑺The Fed relies on "soft data" (such as corporate surveys) to anchor policy views, but these data have performed poorly recently and uncertainty has increased. ⑻In terms of inflation, the core inflation rate is still higher than 2.6%, but tariffs may further push up prices, and the Federal Reserve needs to determine whether it is a one-time adjustment. ⑼Federal officials stressed that interest rate decisions will be based on data, but the current economy is impacted by policy and data dependence has weakened.
⑴ Euro zone consumers may continue to be reluctant to consume this year amid trade uncertainty and slowing wage growth, Capita Macro's Ankita Amajuri pointed out in the report. ⑵ Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% in March, and consumer confidence declined due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariff policies. ⑶ Looking ahead, although lower interest rates are expected to boost consumption, slower real income growth will partially offset this impact.
⑴ The Fed expects to keep interest rates unchanged in this meeting, and the market focus is on the tone of statements and press conferences. ⑵ The recent unanimous remarks of Fed officials tend to be patient, emphasizing avoiding preventive rate cuts in the presence of inflation risks. ⑶ Chairman Powell is not expected to deviate from this policy stance, and the market expects that he will continue to be cautious.
⑴ Deutsche Bank strategy analysts pointed out that the U.S. deficit and debt have always been the focus of international investors, and are now more prominent due to economic policy concerns. ⑵ Investors show interest in transferring assets from US dollar assets elsewhere, reflecting concerns about US economic policy. ⑶ If the fiscal plan this summer fails to significantly reduce the deficit, it may prompt another increase in term premiums. ⑷ Maturity premium refers to investors holding long-term bonds rather than short-term bondsThe required additional rate of return. ⑸ Effectively reducing the deficit to below 6% of GDP will boost market confidence, while relying on unorthodox channels to relax fiscal policy may aggravate market concerns.
⑴ Indonesia's economic growth this year is facing challenges, mainly due to global trade tensions and slowing consumer spending, Fitch's head of sovereign ratings in Asia-Pacific said. ⑵Fitch lowered Indonesia's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%, and is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2026. ⑶ The Indonesian government sets a growth target of 5.2% in 2025, higher than last year's 5.03%. ⑷ Indonesia faces a 32% export tariff from the United States unless negotiations for lower tax rates are reached before the ban expires in July. ⑸Fitch noted that national income may weaken, which will limit the government's ability to support economic growth, while household spending has dropped to its lowest level in five quarters. ⑹Early this year, tax system upgrades were malfunctioning and disrupting, affecting tax revenues, but the Ministry of Finance said it had achieved 15% of its full-year tax target as of March. ⑺Fitch's rating for Indonesia is "BBB" and its outlook is stable, and Rookmaaker said that slowdown in growth this year will not change this rating unless growth drops significantly.
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1362, a drop of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (Euro-USD) price witnessed mixed trading at its intraday level, again staying above the 1.1340 resistance, supported by its trading above the EMA50, on the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) began to show negative signals after reaching overbought levels, led by bear correction waves on a short-term basis.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3351, a drop of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price fell in recent intraday trading, trying to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, and trying to unload some apparent overbought conditions of (RSI), especially if it shows negative signals.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3390.82, a drop of 1.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices fell in recent intraday trading, stabilizing below $3400, while negative signals appeared on (RSI), on the other hand, the main bullish trend still dominates in the short term, noting that (RSI) has reached an exaggerated oversold level compared to price movements, which suggests that the oversold levelThe selling pressure is gradually returning.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 32.902, a drop of 0.87%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices fell as negative signals appeared on the (RSI), and after reaching overbought levels, the price tried to gain positive momentum, which could help it recover and rise again, relying on the EMA50.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 59.560, an increase of 0.80%. Before New York, crude oil prices fluctuated at their intraday levels, with the rise turning to attacking the key resistance of $59.65, but it rebounded lowered by resistance stability, erased all gains while testing the major bear trend line in the short term, touching the EMA50 resistance.
⑴Morgan Stanley investment management company Jim Caron said in the report that long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have investment value after the sharp rise in yields last month. ⑵The rise in yields is mainly caused by technical factors. Investors hurriedly closed their positions and lifted leverage trading after a sudden decline in US stocks. ⑶ US Treasury bonds are still safe-haven assets. If the US economy slows down due to tariff policies and the risk of recession increases, long-term US Treasury bonds will have direct investment value and hedging value.
Dutch International Group analyst Chris Turner said in a report that optimism about the UK trade agreement and the improvement of UK-EU relations may boost the pound. Britain and India announced a trade deal on Tuesday, while speculation is heating up, believing that the United States and Britain may reach a deal this week. The UK-EU summit held on May 19 may also prompt a recovery in bilateral relations after Brexit. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision on Thursday, but the market may be a little ahead of its expectations of multiple rate cuts this year. "So, we tend to think that the pound will rebound to the high of $1.3445 in the next few days."
The above content is about "[XM Forex Official Website]: The chaos at Newark Airport in the United States continues, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on May 7" was carefully compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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