US dollar index fluctuates higher, US labor data weak and consumer confidence sluggish

On April 30, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.18. On Tuesday, supported by hopes of the U.S. trade agreement, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated higher, returning to above the 99 mark, and finally closed up 0.28% to 99.21. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted after poor performance in U.S. economic data, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.181%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.656%. As risk aversion sentiment cooled down, spot gold fell back and fell below the $3,300 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.81% at $3,317.25 per ounce. Spot silver rose first and then fell, and the US market gave up all the gains in the day, and finally closed down 0.69% at $32.93 per ounce. International crude oil plummeted as signs of pressure on U.S. economic data hit demand outlook. WTI crude oil fell continuously, breaking the 61 and 60 marks in succession, and finally closed down 2.84% to $59.93 per barrel, hitting a new low in the past three weeks; Brent crude oil closed down 2.48% to $63 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.18. A modest gain was shown Tuesday after weak labor market and consumer confidence data raised expectations of policy easing. Despite strong trade headlines and stock markets, the index remains under pressure. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 98.80–99.00. A break below the 98.80 level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level 97.50–97.70.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1391. The dollar fell slightly against the euro as U.S. economic data fell below expectations. German economic data and the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) report for March will be the focus later on Wednesday. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1400 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.1450–1.1470. In terms of support, a break below 1.1350 will open the way to test the support level of 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3406. Investor confidence appears to have improved as U.S. Treasury yields plummeted after the release of lower-than-expected data, which could prompt the Fed to adopt a more relaxed policy. Data from the U.S. Vacancies and Labor Movement Survey (JOLTS) in March showed job openings fell to their lowest levels since September last year, indicating weak labor demand. The vacancies dropped from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, lower than expected 7.5 million. Meanwhile, the Conference Committee (CB) fell to its lowest point in nearly five years in April, with confidence falling from 93.9 to 86.0, down from 87.5. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above the 1.3420 level, it will move to the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500. RSI is in a mild area and there is enough room for additional upward momentum in the short term.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, gold trading was around 3323.23. The precious metal fell slightly as trade tensions eased and global market risk sentiment improved. Traders will focus on changes in U.S. ADP employment, personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) and preliminary first-quarter GDP reports, which will be released later on Wednesday.

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices is still intact, but in the past five trading days, gold has consolidated in the range of $3260 to $3386, failing to break through the $3200 or $3400 mark. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), kinetic energy remains bullish, but the slope of the index is decreasing towards the neutral line. This shows that neither the buyer nor the seller dominates. If gold falls below $3300,One support level will be the April 23 low of $3,260, followed by $3,200. Conversely, if gold breaks through $3400, the next resistance will be $3450, followed by an all-time high of $3500.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 59.98. International oil prices encountered "Black Tuesday", with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both falling more than 2.5%, setting the lowest closing price in two weeks. The market continues to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations, and US Treasury Secretary Bescent said that no trade agreement will be reached until Trump announces it. In addition, Trump needs to approve 18 key trade agreements and he is participating in relevant negotiations.

Technical: Because traders are worried that the trade war will damage oil demand. If WTI crude oil closes below $60.00, it will move towards the next support level of $57.50 to $58.00.

Forex market trading reminder on April 30, 2025

09:30 China's April official manufacturing PMI

09:30 Australia's first quarter CPI annual rate

09:30 Australia's March weighted CPI annual rate

09:45 China's April Caixin Manufacturing PMI

13:30 France's first quarter GDP annual rate< /p>

14:00UK April Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate

14:45Friday CPI Monthly Rate in April

15:00Swiss April KOF Leading Economy Indicator

15:55German April Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment and Unemployment Rate

16:00German First Quarterly Unadjusted Annual Rate in the First Quarter

16:00Swiss April Z EW Investor Confidence Index

17:00 Eurozone's First Quarter GDP Annual Rate Initial Value

20:00 German April CPI Monthly Rate Initial Value

20:15 US April ADP Employment Number

20:30 Canada February GDP Monthly Rate

20:30 US First Quarter Labor Cost Index Quarterly Rate

20:30 US First Quarterly GDP and PCE annualized quarterly rate

20:30 The US Treasury Department released its quarterly refinancing statement

21:45 The US Chicago PMI (Jinshi Data APP) in April

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar index fluctuates and rises, the US labor data is weak, and consumer confidence is sluggish". It is carefully compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. For the convenience of todayLater work must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of past work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.