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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the foreign exchange market, various news always affects the trend of the currency. On April 30, 2025, many factors were intertwined, bringing a complex situation to foreign exchange trading.
U.S. President Trump's tariff policy continues to ferment. Although he announced that he would implement a 90-day suspension of tariffs and lower the reciprocal tariffs to 10% for some countries, the uncertainty of the policy is still impacting the market. Its changing style makes investors worry about the outlook for the US economy. Goldman Sachs' short-term sharp adjustment in expectations of the possibility of a U.S. recession is a reflection of market uneasiness. At the same time, the yield on US Treasury bonds has risen significantly recently, causing market concerns about the "collapse" of the US Treasury market. Some foreign capital chose to withdraw from the US market due to the uncertainty caused by the impact of tariffs and the rapid depreciation of the US dollar. In addition, Fed officials stated that tariffs raised the threshold for interest rate cuts, which means that under the current tariff environment, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment space is limited, and it is impossible to easily stimulate the economy or stabilize the market through interest rate cuts, further increasing the uncertainty of the US dollar's trend.
No obvious positive news supports the US dollar. However, as the world's major reserve currency, the US dollar has a deep-rooted position in the international financial system. When global economic and financial markets volatility intensifies, it may still attract some safe-haven funds to inflow, stabilizing the US dollar exchange rate to a certain extent. However, in the current complex situation, this kind of risk aversion support role is relatively limited.
In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, the attributes of the traditional safe-haven currency of the Japanese yen are highlighted. April 30, USD to Japanese Yen DayThe domestic decline was obvious, and the market risk aversion sentiment pushed investors to buy the yen, causing the demand for the yen to rise, and provided strong support for the yen exchange rate. In addition, although the Bank of Japan's long-term loose monetary policy has curbed the appreciation of the yen to a certain extent, its policy stability has also attracted some funds seeking to stabilize the monetary environment to flow into Japan, indirectly increasing the attractiveness of the yen.
The Japanese economy itself faces certain challenges, with weak domestic demand growth and exports greatly affected by the global trade situation. Although the yen appreciates due to safe-haven demand, weak economic fundamentals may limit its appreciation space. If the global economic situation improves and the market risk aversion sentiment fades, the yen may face pressure to pull back.
European Central Bank Management Committee Villeroy said that Trump's recent policies have weakened people's confidence in the US dollar, and also pointed out that this provides opportunities for the euro to enhance its international status. However, judging from the actual economic data, the eurozone economic recovery is slow, inflation levels do not meet expectations, and the debt problems of some member countries are still serious. These factors limit the upward momentum of the euro, and market concerns about the economic outlook of the euro zone continue to suppress the euro exchange rate.
The ECB may further adjust its monetary policy based on the economic situation of the euro zone and take more relaxed measures to stimulate economic growth. If subsequent policy adjustments meet market expectations, they will provide certain support for the euro. In addition, with the changes in the global trade situation, if Europe can gain a favorable position in trade negotiations, increase exports, and improve trade balances, it will also be beneficial to the euro.
GBP: UK economic data performs inconsistently, and the effectiveness of the implementation of the post-Brexit trade agreement remains to be seen. The market has differences over the direction of the Bank of England's monetary policy, which has caused the pound exchange rate to fluctuate greatly. Although there is no major news in the near future that directly affects the pound, the uncertainty of the global economic and trade situation poses a potential threat to the stability of the pound.
Commodity currencies such as Australian dollar and Canadian dollar: Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. are closely related to commodity prices. The global economic growth slowed down and the demand for commodities weakened, resulting in a decline in commodity prices, which in turn suppressed currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In addition, some negative data on the domestic economy of Australia and Canada, such as slowing growth in some Australian industries and poor data on the value of Canadian construction licenses, have also had an adverse impact on their currency.
Chenglish Franc: On April 30, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Swiss franc exceeded 1 US dollar to 0.8242 Swiss franc, an increase of 0.5404%. As a traditional safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc is often favored by investors when global economic instability. However, the changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Swiss franc on that day showed that the market had adjusted the supply and demand relationship between the two currencies. The specific influencing factors may include differences in economic data between the United States and Switzerland, changes in monetary policy expectations, etc.
The foreign exchange market is subject to various factorsThe function is that the news surface changes rapidly. When trading, investors need to pay close attention to global economic data, central bank policy trends, and geopolitical situations, comprehensively judge currency trends, and make transaction decisions with caution.
The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influence the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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