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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump's tariffs have "concessions" again! "Major events" are rumored in the United States. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Trump's policy prompted investors to sell their U.S. assets, and the U.S. dollar index fell on Monday. Disappointing manufacturing data on Monday intensified concerns about U.S. economic growth and hit the dollar.
Juan Perez, head of Washington Trading Department of MonexUSA, said: "Today's market characteristics are the weakening of the dollar and the correlation between stock market doubts. Although corporate financial reports will still affect market sentiment, the real problem is the market's lack of confidence in the U.S. economic outlook, as the United States is trying to act unilaterally and put pressure on the world's largest economy."
U.S. President Trump's trade policy and tough rhetoric towards China prompted investors to start flocking to assets outside the United States.
Meera Chandan, co-head of global foreign exchange strategy at JPMorgan Chase, said: "We expect the dollar to usher in a second wave of decline. This is a cyclical shift that will last for multiple quarters."
China promises to be confident in achieving the growth target of around 5% this year and promises to implement a variety of support measures in a timely manner in the country's current comprehensive trade war with the United States. However, major stimulus measures were not announced immediately, giving the impression that Beijing is not in a hurry to introduce large-scale interventions. Authorities seem to be inclined to monitor the timing and extent of the trade shock first before deciding to take more radical measures.
Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, emphasized at today's press conference that China has retained "adequate policy reserves and sufficient policy space" and emphasized plans to stabilize employment and strengthen public employment services.
At the Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping last week, officialsCall for "timely lowering" interest rates and reserve ratios to support the economy. In addition, other measures to help troubled enterprises, promote consumption among low- and middle-income groups, and promote further development of technology and artificial intelligence were highlighted.
Official data released over the weekend showed that China's industrial profits resumed growth in the first quarter, which made people optimistic. Cumulative profits increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 1.5T yuan, reversing the decline of 0.3% in the first two months.
European Market
European Central Bank Deputy Governor Luis de Guindos said in the European Parliament today that while the eurozone economy may achieve moderate growth in the first quarter, the risks to the outlook have increased.
He pointed out that new trade barriers, financial market tensions and geopolitical instability have brought unusual uncertainty, all of which could put pressure on business investment and consumer spending in the coming months.
"In this environment, consumers may be cautious about the future and suppress spending," deGuindos added.
In addition, Olli Rehn, a member of the European Central Bank's governance committee in Finland, pointed to growing resistance, suggesting that the central bank may need to lower interest rates below neutral levels and maintain maximum flexibility.
Rehn stressed that potential inflationary pressures are easing, and the escalation of U.S. trade tariffs have largely led to an increase in the downside risk of inflation in the euro zone.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Management Committee of France, said today that neither France nor Europe have an imminent risk of recession as inflation continues to decline.
In an interview with RTL Radio, Villeroy also reiterated that despite global uncertainty, the ECB still retains "a room for gradual rate cuts."
Villeroy also issued a strong warning about the risks posed by U.S. trade policy. He criticized the government's protectionist position, saying it "opposed to the US economy, and unfortunately, to the world economy."
He stressed that protectionism will ultimately lead to “slower growth and increased inflation.”
U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in April was significantly lower than expected.
The U.S. Treasury Department raised its forecast for the second quarter debt to $514 billion. US Treasury Secretary: The "X-day" on the debt ceiling issue will be announced in the near future.
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