The US dollar index fell, and Trump suddenly reported that he would "reduce" tariffs!

On April 29, in the early trading of Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.09. On Monday, the US dollar index fell, falling below the 99 mark at the end of the trading session, and finally closed down 0.687% at 98.93. U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.211%, a three-week low; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.701%. With the intervention of buying on dips, spot gold turned from falling to rising during the session, once returned to the $3350 mark, and finally closed up 0.79% to $3344.26 per ounce. Spot silver rose relatively weakly and finally closed up 0.25% at $33.16 per ounce. International crude oil ended its two-day consecutive rise, and the decline in the US session widened. WTI crude oil fell below the $62 mark and finally closed down 2.06% to $61.68 per barrel, a new low in the past two weeks; Brent crude oil closed down 1.97% to $64.61 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.09. Optimism about the possibility of U.S. trade policy ultimately lowering global tariffs is increasingly seen as unrealistic. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that under the leadership of the Trump administration, multilateralism continues to weaken, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is marginalized, and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) faces a long and uncertain negotiation timeline. In addition, the risks of long-term uncertainty may put heavy pressure on the global growth prospects. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 98.80–99.00. A break below the 98.80 level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level 97.50–97.70.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1403. The euro (EUR) weakened against the US dollar (USD) as bets on further interest rate cuts rose in June. Investors are preparing to welcome further developments in U.S. trade policy before awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) data to be released on Friday. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 1.1400 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level, which is in the range of 1.1450–1.1470.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3426. Later this week, the United States will release its first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and its April jobs report. Until then, news about the U.S.-China trade war may continue to push GBP/USD action. If geopolitical tensions remain highly tense, the dollar may continue to be disadvantaged and open the door for the pair to move higher. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes above the 1.3420 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.3485–1.3500.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3333.40. Gold fell slightly amid a slight rebound in the U.S.-China tensions eased. China on Friday exempted 125% tariffs on some U.S. imports, increasing hopes of a near-end of the U.S.-China trade war, even as China quickly overturned U.S. President Donald Trump's claims that negotiations between the two countries are underway.

Technical: As traders reacted to the decline in US dollar decline and paid attention to the decline in US Treasury yields, gold prices rose. The gold price successfully breaks through the resistance level of US$3350-3360, and will move towards the next resistance level of US$3490-3500.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 61.69. As the progress of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations raise the possibility of Iranian crude oil re-entering the market, crude oil prices continue to fall. In addition, expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its ally OPEC+ may increase production for the second consecutive month have put additional pressure on oil prices.

Technical: Crude oil is falling because traders are worried that the United States and China have not started trade negotiations yet. If WTI crude oil remains below the $62.00 level, it will move towards an important psychological level of $60.00.

Forex market trading reminder on April 29, 2025

①14:00 Germany May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

②17:00 Eurozone April Industrial Boom Index

③17:00 Eurozone April Economic Boom Index

④20:00 US Treasury Secretary Bescent attended the press conference

⑤20:30 US Treasury Secretary Besent delivered a speech

⑥21:00 US February FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate

⑦21:00 US February S&P/CS 20 major cities unseasonally adjusted the annual rate of the house price index

⑧22:00 US March JOLTs job vacancy

⑨22:00 US April Consulting Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index

⑩ The next day 04:30 US to April 25 API crude oil inventories

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