The US dollar index is below the 100 mark, will the United States escalate sanctions against Russia?

On April 28, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday and Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.59. The dollar index rose last Friday, driven by hopes of easing global trade tensions, and eventually closed up 0.325% to 99.61, ending a four-week decline. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.24%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.744%. Given the cooldown in risk aversion sentiment and the strong dollar, spot gold fell, hitting a low of $3,265.2/ounce, and finally closed down 0.9% at $3,318.2/ounce, the first weekly closing negative since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Spot silver fell below the 33 mark again during the session, rebounding at the end of the session, and finally closed down 1.46% at $33.08 per ounce. As uncertainty in tariff negotiations remained, international crude oil rose slightly for the second consecutive day. WTI crude oil once again hit the 63 mark and finally closed up 0.57% to $62.98 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.38% to $65.91 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.59. Fundamentals may be the main driver of the dollar in the near future, especially the shift in attitudes of US President Trump. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent commented that trade tensions with other economies could ease, adding that tariffs would be significantly lowered if trade agreements were reached with other economies.It was confirmed by Trump at all. Furthermore, the U.S. president no longer attacks Fed Chairman Powell, which eases pressure on the Fed's interest rate cuts, which may allow it to play a supporting role in the U.S. dollar. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index returns below the 99.50 level, it will move towards the nearest support range of 98.80–99.00.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1362. Eurozone economic data will be a key factor in the direction of the euro. The market is concerned about the initial HICP inflation rate in April, which, if slowed down, could lead to a lower euro as the slowdown could strengthen market expectations for the ECB rate cut. On the other hand, if initial GDP growth accelerates in the first quarter, showing another month-on-month growth, it may provide support for the euro, as market concerns about the eurozone economy likely to fall into recession may ease. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above 50MA at 1.1392, it will move towards resistance at 1.1450–1.1470. A breakout above the 1.1470 level will open the way for testing the resistance levels of 1.1550–1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovers around 1.3298. The market is concerned about ongoing negotiations between the UK and the US. The UK seems willing to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for US products to enter the UK market. If a possible trade agreement can reduce US tariffs on UK products, it may provide some support for the pound. On the other side of the English Channel, it is reported that the British government is about to reach a new defense agreement with the EU. If so, this issue may support the pound. Overall, the market believes that any improvement in the UK-EU relations will benefit the pound. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above the 1.3320 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 1.3400–1.3420.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3312.16. In the early Asian market, spot gold fell sharply in the short term. Bloomberg analyzed on Monday that gold prices fell further from last week's historical highs because there were signs that the "explosive rise" of gold prices may be too fierce and too fast, and traders closed their positions one after another. Meanwhile, the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows hedge fund managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options to their lowest levels in 14 months.

Technical: From a technical point of view, gold formed a potential bearish weak closing reversal last week. This is not a trend change, but a shift in momentum. Tradings that break through $3500.20 will negate the chart pattern and indicate a recovery in the uptrend. However, trading above $3260.19 will confirm weakness and may extend to the pivot point of $3166.46. It is followed by another fulcrum of 30 $18.52.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil traded around 62.88. Crude oil fell sharply last week, with traders fighting supply-driven adverse factors and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude closed down while WTI fell as potential new supply and fragile global demand expectations kept buyers cautious.

Technical side: Crude oil is swaying between the rise and fall because of traders' reaction to tariff news. China has exempted tariffs on some U.S. imported goods, and traders hope that this is the first step to reaching a comprehensive agreement between the two countries. As WTI oil prices remain near the resistance level of $62.50 to $63.00, the technical side remains unchanged.

Forex market trading reminder on April 28, 2025

①To be determined Canada holds federal elections

②10:00 State Information Office holds a press conference

③18:00 UK CBI retail sales difference in April CBI

④22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index

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