The US dollar has entered a continuous long-term decline phase, and the rise in gold prices is one of the performances

XM Forex APP News - Goldman Sachs' global head of foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets Kamakshya Trivedi said the dollar has entered a sustained long-term decline phase, and as U.S. bonds fall together with U.S. stocks, foreign investors are revaluing the risk returns of dollar-denominated assets He said on Tuesday: "I think the dollar's weakness will be further, I think this will continue and deepen." Trivedi said that the dollar has fallen the most against the euro so far, but the yen may be the next beneficiary. "I think if you start to see some data start to weaken, then you may see the yen move again, too. So far, these data are actually quite resilient. It's a typical super safe harbor, and I think if the U.S. labor market data starts to have problems, we may soon be back to a low of over 130," he said. "I think that will tell you whether the euro or the yen will be the lead, but I think the dollar weakness will continue." When asked if this means the dollar's decline is a permanent state, Trivedi thinks it's more of a long-term decline. "I think there's some fundamental change here," he said. "The first thing that changes is the outlook for the U.S. economy, and I think the risk of a recession is very high. I think people, especially foreign investors, are revaluing the outlook for U.S. assets, dollar assets. I think the same is true for stocks, because they are closely related to returns and the economy. But I think the disassembly of correlation is especially important. If you're a foreign investor in U.S. bonds, a big part of its appeal is the hedging value it provides to you. When U.S. stocks fall,These assets should have risen. If they weren't going to do this at this time, I think this would really be a concern for people. What I am more worried about is that in this case, foreign investors will revalue the risks and returns of U.S. assets. "Afterwards, Trivedi was asked whether the continued gold price increase also indicates that the market will continue to depart from the dollar. On Tuesday morning, spot gold prices hit an all-time high of more than $3,500 per ounce after being adjusted for inflation. "I think gold is definitely telling you that, and it has been telling you for some time," he said. You have seen the central bank buy gold in large quantities, which is a big source of demand. I think this is telling you that people want to spread the dollar assets into a wider range of safe haven assets, and I think gold is one of them. "One of the challenges is that there are no obvious alternatives, which is why I think it's too early to give up the dollar as a safe haven asset." This has been a challenge and is still a challenge. We still believe that the dominance of the US dollar in global trade flows will last for some time, but that doesn't mean that if the marginal dollar allocated starts looking for more diversified asset portfolios, not just the main dollar assets, you won't see the dollar weakness continue. That's what we expected. On April 14, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for gold prices, from $3,300 at the end of the year before, citing stronger central bank demand and increased recession risk driving increased ETF capital inflows. The investment bank said it expects central bank demand to average 80 tons per month, higher than the previous forecast of 70 tons and well above the baseline of 17 tons per month by 2022. It also noted that gold ETF capital inflows surged driven by recession concerns. Goldman Sachs economists currently believe that the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is 45%. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the central bank purchases an average of 100 tons per month, it will be 20. Gold prices may reach $3,810 per ounce by the end of 25. On the ETF side, if the recession occurs, ETF capital inflows may return to the level of the epidemic, supporting gold prices to $3,880 by the end of the year. On April 7, Goldman Sachs analysts told investors that any pullback in gold should be seen as an entry opportunity, and they continue to recommend longing gold, believing that this is their "firm view of commodities." Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report at the time: "We maintain the year-end gold price estimate at $3,300 per ounce, with an estimated range of $3,250 to $3,520, mainly reflecting the upside risks of investor positions. We continue to believe that risk tends to rise relative to our estimates. "Further support for gold will come from structural demand from emerging market central banks, as well as increased funds flowing into ETFs due to recession concerns and Fed rate cuts. They also noted that gold and other precious metals were exempt from new tariffs, and they do not expect the Trump administration to impose tariffs on them in the future. Gold remains the bank's prominent asset, which sees macroeconomic risks and relatively few investor positions as further gainsLaid the foundation. Analysts said: "We believe that this, along with other potential declines in the gold market, is an opportunity for investors to go long gold."

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